THE POLL BLUDGER
Western Australian Legislative Assembly Election 2008

WILLAGEE Labor 13.8%
Upper house region: South Metropolitan Federal division: Fremantle/Tangney
	ALAN CARPENTER Labor (top) ROBERT DELVES Greens MATT TAYLOR Liberal (bottom)

The Labor margin in the Premier's seat of Willagee has been cut 2.7 per cent by the redistribution, which has moved 3800 voters in Spearwood to Cockburn in the south and 2600 in Bibra Lake to Jandakot to the south-west, while drawing the electorate northwards and westwards through the contraction of riverside Alfred Cove (adding 2700 voters in Melville) and Fremantle (adding 700 in Hamilton Hill and Palmyra). The electorate was created at the 1996 election largely out of abolished Melville, which was divided between Willagee and safe conservative Alfred Cove. Melville had been held by Labor from its creation in 1950 until Doug Shave emerged a surprise Liberal victor in 1989 by 32 votes, consolidating with a double-digit swing in 1993. Shave then moved on to Alfred Cove and Willagee was contested for Labor by Alan Carpenter, former presenter of the Perth edition of the ABC's 7:30 Report. The seat had a notional margin of only 2.3 per cent, but Carpenter secured a 6.5 per cent swing on debut and has gone untroubled since. Carpenter was immediately made Shadow Education Minister and carried the portfolio over into government. After the 2005 election he was entrusted with the important state development and energy portfolios, adding to a perception he was being groomed for the leadership. This duly came to pass after Geoff Gallop's unexpected retirement announcement in January 2006, with Carpenter freezing out “New Right” candidate Michelle Roberts by winning the support of both sub-factions of the Left.

The Liberal candidate is Matt Taylor, a locally-resident sustainability consultant in urban development.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain