The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

SWAN HILLS Labor 3.6%
Upper house region: East Metropolitan Federal division: Pearce
	CRAIG WATSON Family First GRAHAM GIFFARD Labor (top) FRANK ALBAN Liberal (bottom) JENNI BOWMAN Greens KEITH BLOK Christian Democratic Party

One of three conspicuously large electorates covering Perth's outskirts (along with Darling Range and Mindarie), Swan Hills covers the Swan Valley from Middle Swan to The Vines, the hills suburbs of Mundaring, Parkerville and Stoneville, and largely undeveloped areas at the north-eastern edge of the metropolitan area. The redistribution has transferred Chidlow, Mount Helena and Sawyers Valley in the south-east to Darling Range, along with smaller transfers at Darlington to Kalamunda in the south and Henley Brook to West Swan in the west, effecting a 0.2 per cent reduction in the Labor margin.

Swan Hills was created at the 1989 election in place of abolished Mundaring, itself carved out of Toodyay in 1971. Mundaring was held by Labor's James Moiler from 1971 to 1977, when boundary changes helped deliver it to Tom Herzfeld of the Liberal Party. Gavan Troy gained the seat as part of Labor's win at the 1983 election, and carried over as member for Swan Hills in 1989. Swan Hills was won by Liberal candidate June van de Klashorst upon Troy's retirement in 1993 and held by her until 2001, when her 9.8 per cent margin was obliterated by a surprise 11.8 per cent swing (delivered in large part as preferences from One Nation, who polled 10.9 per cent). The result made Labor candidate Jaye Radisich, 25 years old and not long out of the National Union of Students, the second youngest member in the history of the state parliament and its youngest ever woman.

Radisich survived a cancer scare during her first term and won promotion to a parliamentary secretary position in her second, in the important energy, resources and industry portfolios. It was widely considered that a further promotion to cabinet was not far off, so it came as a surprise when she announced in March that she was quitting politics at the age of 32. This followed her failure to win support for a transfer to the safer new seat of West Swan, which Alan Carpenter was determined should go to his chief-of-staff Rita Saffioti. Radisich went on receive uncomfortable publicity in early May when claims circulated that Carpenter had lifted her shirt and revealed her bra during a party karaoke night in 2004, which Radisich refused to deny.

The preselection to replace Radisich was won by Graham Giffard, an upper house MP since 2000, ahead of Swan councillor Todd Jones. Giffard's interest in a move to the lower house stems from electoral reform which had rendered highly precarious his number three position on the ticket for North Metropolitan region, which had been reduced from seven members to six. The West Australian reported he had earlier been “touting himself” for seats including Maylands, Mount Lawley and Morley, but found resistance because his Centre faction (associated with the Transport Workers Union and, until recently, Kevin Reynolds of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union) had been marginalised by a power-sharing arrangement between the LHMWU Left and the “old Right” faction of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. In the previous term he reportedly had his eyes on the plum seat of Perth, claiming in April 2004 that he had the numbers to unseat sitting member John Hyde, whose security was placed beyond doubt when the party's national executive intervened to protect all sitting members.

The Liberals have nominated Frank Alban, who represents Guildford ward on Swan City Council.

As the campaign began, state political editor Peter Kennedy told ABC Radio that a Labor source had revealed polling in Swan Hills showing 69 per cent believed the Liberals were not ready to govern, but clammed up when probed about voting intention or figures from other seats. Later in the campaign the seat was said to have been of “concern” to Labor.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN