The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

SOUTH PERTH Liberal 7.5%
Upper house region: South Metropolitan Federal division: Swan
	JIM GRAYDEN Independent JOHN McGRATH Liberal (top) LEENA MICHAEL Labor (bottom) KAREN McDONALD Family First FRANK HOUGH Independent ROS HARMAN Greens

Confined by the natural boundaries of the Swan River to the north and the Canning River to the west and south, the truncation required of South Perth by the one-vote one-value redistribution has inevitably come from the electorate's least affluent areas bordering safe Labor Victoria Park. The result has been a 1.5 per cent boost to the Liberal margin in a seat that has been more troublesome for the party than its conservative inclination would suggest. Created in 1950, it was held for 37 years by Bill Grayden, sometimes as an independent but usually as a Liberal (he was also federal member for Swan from 1949 to 1954). When Grayden retired in 1993, his son John ran as an independent after brother James was defeated for Liberal preselection by Phillip Pendal, an upper house member since 1980. Labor declined to field a candidate in the hope the seat would fall to an independent, but in the event Pendal went untroubled. After being denied a cabinet post due to what many perceived as hostility from the Court dynasty, Pendal quit the party in 1994 and retained the seat as an independent in 1996, winning 39.6 per cent of the primary vote against 33.3 per cent for Liberal candidate Peter Spencer. Pendal's vote fell 8.8 per cent in 2001, but that was accounted for more by Labor and minor parties than by Liberal candidate Andrew Murfin, who went on to narrowly lose in Swan at the 2004 federal election after a disastrous personal campaign.

Pendal's decision to retire ahead of the 2005 election led to a lively Liberal preselection vote that gave a narrow victory to local businessman Tony Rocchi, who had already been nominated for Riverton but wanted a safer seat. However, Rocchi's win was overturned by the party's appeals and disciplinary committee and a new ballot followed three months later. Paul Murray wrote in The West Australian of a successful move by Andrew Murfin and another hopeful, Andre Timmermanis, to render the party's South Perth branch unconstitutional through a quietly conducted transfer of members from outside the electorate on the day nominations closed, effectively depriving Rocchi of votes. There was talk that Rocchi might run as an independent, but the Liberals lanced the boil by nominating a clean-skin in the shape of John McGrath, who formerly held the not inconsiderable job of chief football writer for The West Australian.

After being described by The West Australian as a “collaborator” in Paul Omodei's March 2006 leadership takeover from Matt Birney, McGrath was later identified with the move against Omodei which reached fruition in January 2008 (nothing came of talk that Birney, who moved into the electorate in late 2005, might seek revenge by challenging him from preselection, thereby escaping his own traditionally Labor-held seat of Kalgoorlie). Both events were followed by promotion: in 2006 he was given the front-bench road safety, racing, gaming and liquor licensing portfolios, to which housing and works were added when Troy Buswell became leader. Robert Taylor of The West Australian noted that McGrath was one of only four out of 16 lower house members who had definitely voted for Buswell in the May 5 leadership spill, part of a trend in which holders of loseable seats went strongly the other way.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain