The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

SOUTHERN RIVER Labor 5.1%
Upper house region: South Metropolitan Federal division: Canning
	NICOLA WISEMAN Greens SCOTT KUIPERS Christian Democratic Party PAUL ANDREWS Labor (top) PETER ABETZ Liberal (bottom) RENISE JUDGE Family First

Southern River is located in Perth's south-eastern outskirts, from Southern River itself north to Thornlie and west to the residential part of Canning Vale. The seat had a notional Labor margin of 3.5 per cent upon its creation at the 1996 election, but their candidate Judyth Watson (previously member for Canning and Kenwick) was defeated by Liberal candidate Monica Holmes after a 5.0 per cent swing. An almost identical counter-swing at the 2001 election delivered the seat to Paul Andrews, a former school teacher associated with the Centre faction. There followed a redistribution which shifted the seat eastwards, changing it so substantially it effectively became a successor seat to abolished Thornlie, with the original area of Southern River forming the basis of Kenwick (which has now been divided between Gosnells, Forrestfield, Kalamunda and Cannington). The 5.5 per cent boost to the Labor margin made the seat tempting to predators, and there was talk Andrews might fall victim to the newly forged alliance between the Left and the New Right. He was eventually confirmed in his position when the party's national executive intervened in May 2004 to protect all sitting members. Monica Holmes valiantly attempted to recover the seat for the Liberals at the 2005 election, but Andrews was able to add a further 1.4 per cent to the Labor margin.

Southern River has again been knocked about by the more recent redistribution, an inevitable fate for an outer suburbs seat with no coasts or rivers to serve as anchor points. This time it loses territory in the north-east to Gosnells and Cannington (along with the Canning Vale prison, which for some reason has been transferred to Riverton), while gaining the Canning Vale residential area from abolished Serpentine-Jarrahdale in the west. Just as the previous shift eastwards boosted the Labor margin, so has this move to the west improved the situation for the Liberals, cutting Labor's margin from 11.8 per cent to 5.1 per cent. Paul Andrews has faced down serious illness during the current term, but has at least been spared preselection threats this time around.

The Liberal candidate is the Reverend Peter Abetz, pastor of the Christian Reformed Church of Willetton and preselection aspirant for the state seat of South Perth and federal seat of Tangney in 2004. He is the brother of Eric Abetz, Tasmanian Liberal Senator and Right faction powerbroker. Abetz was listed as Liberal candidate in late July in place of the originally nominated Ron Hoffman, who represents Canning Vale ward on Gosnells City Council.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain