THE POLL BLUDGER
Western Australian Legislative Assembly Election 2008

MOUNT LAWLEY Labor 5.8%
New electorate Upper house region: East Metropolitan Federal divisions: Perth/Stirling
	PAUL CONNELLY Christian Democratic Party CHRIS DICKINSON Greens KAY WARWICK Family First KAREN BROWN Labor (top) MICHAEL SUTHERLAND Liberal (bottom)

Located in Perth's inner north-east, Mount Lawley previously existed as an electorate between 1950 and 1989, when it was usually fairly safe for the conservatives. Premier-turned-jail-inmate Ray O'Connor held the seat from 1962 until his retirement in 1984, when it passed to George Cash, later to find refuge in the upper house when Mount Lawley was abolished. The area's political complexion has changed considerably since then, such that the recreated seat has a fairly comfortable Labor margin of 5.8 per cent. Nearly two-thirds of the voters come from abolished Yokine, the remainder mostly coming from Perth along with a small number from Maylands.

Yokine has been held since 2001 by Bob Kucera, who won the seat from Court government minister Kim Hames (now the member for Dawesville) with the election of the Gallop government. A former assistant police commissioner, Kucera had been considered a star recruit for Labor ahead of that election. He was immediately fast-tracked into the crucial health portfolio, where he quickly experienced difficulties that led to his demotion to Tourism and Small Business Minister in June 2003. One such problem emerged in May 2002 when former detective Tony Lewandowski confessed to involvement in the framing of the Mickelberg brothers over the Perth Mint swindle, as Kucera had been officer-in-charge at the police station when their confessions were extracted. His star has continued to fade in the current term: he was further demoted to Sports and Seniors Minister after the February 2005 election, and resigned from cabinet eight months later over a failure to disclose a conflict of interest during a cabinet meeting.

When Yokine was abolished under the new electoral boundaries, reports emerged that 63-year-old Kucera was being pressured to retire. The safe new seat of Nollamara, taking just under half of its voters from Yokine, had been reserved for former UnionsWA assistant secretary Janine Freeman under a deal between the Right and Jim McGinty's LHMWU Left. Mount Lawley meanwhile had been earmarked by Alan Carpenter for his hand-picked candidate Karen Brown, a former deputy editor for The West Australian who had lately been working with former Labor MP John Halden's lobbying firm Halden Burns. However, Kucera did not prove of a mind to go quietly, and after vainly contesting the Mount Lawley preselection announced he was quitting the ALP to stand as an independent, most likely in Nollamara. Others mentioned as possible preselection starters were Vincent deputy mayor Steed Farrell, aligned with the LHMWU Left; upper house MP Graham Giffard, of the Centre faction, who will instead contest Swan Hills; and Premier's Office staffer John Carey. Brown meanwhile encountered a difficulty of her own when John Halden was dumped as her campaign manager after admitting public servants had provided him with confidential cabinet information.

The Liberals have nominated Perth deputy lord mayor Michael Sutherland, a councillor of 12 years' standing.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain