The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

KALGOORLIE Liberal 7.2%
Upper house region: Mining and Pastoral Federal division: Kalgoorlie Outgoing Member: Matt Birney (Liberal)
	NAT JAMES Liberal (top) JOHN BOWLER Independent TONY CROOK Nationals ANDY HUNTLEY Greens MATHEW CUOMO Labor (bottom)

The one-vote one-value redistribution has dramatically changed the physical shape of the electorate of Kalgoorlie, such that it was originally proposed its name be changed to Goldfields. Where formerly it was contained within the Kalgoorlie city limits, Kalgoorlie now covers 632,816 square kilometres north to the Shire of Wiluna and north-east to the borders of South Australia and the Northern Territory. This vast and largely empty expanse has produced an enrolment around 8000 voters below the state average due to the “large district allowance” applying to electorates of more than 100,000 square kilometres, as a lingering concession to rural vote weighting. The new territory has thus only increased enrolment from 12,837 to 13,656, and while the increase comes from Labor-voting Goldfields towns and remote Aboriginal communities, the Liberal margin has only been cut by 1.4 per cent.

The electorate of Kalgoorlie was first established in 1901, eight years after the start of the gold rush. It changed hands between Labor and conservatives a number of times until 1924, and thereafter remained safe for Labor until 2001 (a separate Kalgoorlie electorate of Hannans was safe for Labor throughout its life from 1901 to 1956). Kalgoorlie was held from 1981 to 1996 by Ian Taylor, Lawrence government Deputy Premier and Opposition Leader for eight months in 1994. Taylor quit for an unsuccessful run at the federal electorate of Kalgoorlie in 1996, and was succeeded at a by-election by Megan Anwyl. Anwyl went on to become the only Labor member to lose her seat when the Gallop government came to power in February 2001, falling victim to the remarkable vote-winning qualities of Matt Birney, who increased the Liberal primary vote from 32.2 per cent to 39.8 per cent in the context of an otherwise disastrous election. Another major factor was the decision of One Nation (10.6 per cent) to direct preferences against most sitting members, which in so many other cases decided the outcome in the opposite direction. Birney wasted little time in establishing his credentials as a potential leader, and felt compelled to hose down talk of a possible challenge to Colin Barnett in August 2002. He enjoyed another excellent result in 2005, when his primary vote increased a further 14.5 per cent and the two-party margin widened from 1.1 per cent to 8.6 per cent.

Birney quickly ran into difficulties as leader, facing furores over a taxpayer-funded trip to Europe for his fiancee, an almost-failed breath test and a finding of contempt of parliament for secretly altering his shares register. Perhaps most important was a perception he unduly punished factional opponents in a shadow cabinet reshuffle in February 2006. Talk of a leadership challenge by Warren-Blackwood MP Paul Omodei came to fruition the following month, with Omodei reportedly prevailing in the party room by one vote. Birney has since remained on the back-bench, but at one point held out the possibility of a return to shadow cabinet if then-leader Omodei conceded him his own mines and resources portfolio. When Omodei instead offered him industrial relations and tourism, held by Birney supporters Murray Cowper and Katie Hodson-Thomas, Birney accused Omodei of indulging in “B-grade politics”. He ultimately announced he would bow out of politics in January 2008, which was seen to light the fuse on Omodei's demise by freeing his own supporters to switch allegiance to Troy Buswell.

The resulting Liberal preselection saw 27-year-old Goldfields pastoralist Nathaniel James defeat Kalgoorlie-Boulder Chamber of Commerce president Guy Brownlee, in what Georgina Loney of the Kalgoorlie Miner described as a “surprise decision”. Labor has nominated local lawyer Mathew Cuomo, brother of former state party secretary Mark Cuomo. Another Labor preselection nominee, Chamber of Minerals and Energy officer and former Julian Grill employee Matthew Payne, withdrew due to ill health. The Nationals have nominated their lead Senate candidate from last year's federal election, Kalgoorlie pastoralist Tony Crook. Further complicating the contest is the entry of Murchison-Eyre MP John Bowler, the former cabinet minister sacked from the ALP in early 2007 when he was found to have provided Brian Burke and Julian Grill with confidential cabinet information.

The Liberals have been taking the seat seriously during the campaign, promising to reopen the Menzies police station, bring forward an upgrade of Kalgoorlie Hospital and spend $200,000 on security cameras in the city.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain