The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

GERALDTON Liberal 3.5%*
Upper house region: Agricultural Federal division: O'Connor * Labor seat made notionally Liberal by redistribution
	PHILIP SPRIGG Christian Democratic Party ADAM VOLKERTS Greens IAN BLAYNEY Liberal (bottom) SHANE HILL Labor (top) ANDREW SHORT Nationals JANE FOREMAN Family First


Two-candidate booth results shown only for booths in Geraldton in 2005. Greenough two-party results were NAT vs LIB.

Located 420 kilometres north of Perth, Geraldton is Western Australia's fifth largest city and has been the basis of an electorate since self-government began in 1890. It was held by Labor for all but one term from 1914 until 1991, when Jeff Carr quit parliament mid-term after being dropped from Carmen Lawrence's cabinet. The resulting by-election produced a catastrophic result for Labor, whose primary vote collapsed from 47.6 per cent to 16.6 per cent. Liberal candidate Bob Bloffwitch narrowly prevailed over the Nationals in a result that helped deprive Labor of its parliamentary majority. Bloffwitch held the seat for two more elections before suffering a disaster of his own in 2001, being dumped by an 11.3 per cent swing caused in large part by a 20.1 per cent vote for One Nation, who were directing preferences against most sitting members.

The victorious Labor candidate was Shane Hill, who had previously worked as an electorate officer for Midland MP Michelle Roberts. Hill has remained on the back-bench during his two terms in parliament, although he has served as the party's lower house whip since February 2006. Redistribution cut his margin from 4.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent ahead of the 2005 election, but he retained the seat against a 0.6 per cent swing as One Nation voters returned to the two major parties in roughly equal proportions. The one-vote one-value redistribution has been even more unhelpful, requiring the electorate to extend far beyond the city limits to the municipal boundary of the City of Geraldton-Greenough. This has added nearly 7000 voters in conservative rural areas and made the seat notionally Liberal with a margin of 3.5 per cent, although this margin would be inflated by the fact that Labor has not seriously campaigned in Greenough in the past.

The Liberal candidate is Ian Blayney, who owns a farming property 40 kilometres east of Geraldton.

Multiple reports during the campaign suggested Labor had high hopes of retaining Geraldton, one suggesting it was felt to be a better prospect than their other regional city casualty of the redistribution, Albany.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal notional retain