The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

COTTESLOE Liberal 7.0%
Upper house region: North Metropolitan Federal division: Curtin
	PAT SEYMOUR Christian Democratic Party COLIN BARNETT Liberal (top) DAVE HUME Labor (bottom) GREG BOLAND Greens

Bounded to the west by the ocean and to the south by Fremantle Harbour and the Swan River, the redistribution has truncated the safe Liberal seat of Cottesloe by moving the Bold Park bushland and areas to the north (including parts of City Beach and Floreat) to Churchlands, and part of Floreat to Nedlands. The affluent electorate has provided a safe home for three Liberal members, starting with Ross Hutchison on its creation in 1950 followed by two unsuccessful party leaders: Bill Hassell from 1977 to 1990, and Colin Barnett thereafter. Barnett went to the back-bench after leading the party to defeat at the 2005 election, but remained highly active in parliament. It was intermittently reported that he might either be drafted back into the leadership, or retire mid-term to make his seat available to instant leadership candidate John Langoulant, then chief executive of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (now of Kerry Stokes' Australian Capital Equity). He eventually announced he would not contest the election in November 2007 and succeeded unopposed for preselection by Deidre Willmott, policy director for the aforementioned CCI and former chief-of-staff to Richard Court. Another name that had been widely mentioned was Director of Public Prosecutions lawyer Christian Porter, but he instead became the member for Murdoch (now being renamed Bateman) at the February 2008 by-election that followed the death of member Trevor Sprigg.

The seeds for Barnett's eventual return were sown with the collapse in public and party support for Troy Buswell after the Sunday Times broke the chair-sniffing story in April. The principals behind the ensuing spill motion, Roe MP Graham Jacobs (now contesting Eyre) and Hillarys MP Rob Johnson, pleaded with Barnett to contest the leadership without success, prompting the party room to vote down the motion as it was unconvinced by the alternatives (Steve Thomas, member for Capel now contesting Collie-Preston, and Dawesville MP Kim Hames). Barnett eventually shifted his position in July after polling continued to worsen, indicating he would consider returning if he could do so without the need for a challenge and with unanimous party room support. It became apparent that the ABC (“Anyone But Colin”) faction within the party had not gone away when he received stern rebukes from party president Barry Court and his predecessor Bill Hassell, who insisted Buswell would lead the party to the election. However, concurrent reports suggested the party that Buswell was considering a voluntary exit pending the results of internal polling, which indeed showed that the election could be winnable only under a different leader. Buswell made his surprise resignation announcement on Monday, August 4, just as a perception was solidifying that he planned to tough it out. Barnett returned to the leadership the following Wednesday, and Alan Carpenter sought to capitalise on the party's confusion by calling the election for September 6 the following day.

This left unresolved the dilemma of Deidre Willmott's nomination as the candidate for Cottesloe. Willmott had little choice but to stand aside to facilitate Barnett's return, while the party maintained that she would be accommodated elsewhere. However, Willmott was not attracted by either of the offers on the table: an upper house seat in North Metropolitan and Cottesloe's neighbouring seat of Nedlands, which would have pitted her against Liberal-turned-independent Sue Walker. With the deadline for nominations rapidly approaching, it became apparent that Willmott would be left out in the cold, depriving the party of badly needed female talent in the lower house. She has been rewarded for her sacrifice with the position of chief-of-staff to Barnett, which had been vacated when Troy Buswell's appointee John Preston returned to his home state of Victoria after a few months in the job. It is widely expected, though not formally acknowledged, that Willmott will replace Barnett as member for Cottesloe at a by-election if the Liberals fail to win government.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain