The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

COLLIE-PRESTON Labor 0.9%*
New electorate Upper house region: South West Federal division: Forrest
	KEITH HOPPER Family First MICK MURRAY Labor (top) RICHARD CHAPMAN Greens STEVE THOMAS Liberal (bottom) WAYNE BARNETT Christian Democratic Party

The new electorate of Collie-Preston covers territory to the south and east of Bunbury previously accommodated by three abolished seats: Capel (which provides 44 per cent of its voters), Collie-Wellington (34 per cent) and Leschenault (22 per cent). It combines two distinct electoral halves: dairy and beef farming country near the coast, which follows the South-West pattern in strongly favouring the Coalition, and the rock-solid Labor coal mining and power generation town of Collie. The latter once formed the basis of a seat so safe for Labor that it was uncontested by conservatives at 12 elections from 1917 to 1953. However, the town's decline forced it to expand into surrounding rural territory at the 1989 election, enabling Nationals candidate Hilda Turnbull to secure what was still considered a surprise win. Turnbull retained the seat until 2001 when a 19 per cent plunge in the Coalition vote combined with preferences to Labor from One Nation (who polled 15.1 per cent) to deliver it to Labor's Mick Murray, who was contesting the seat for the third time. A dramatic redrawing of the electorate at the 2005 election saw it exchange the inland shires of Boddington, Boyup Brook and Donnybrook-Balingup for the coastal ones of Waroona and Harvey, prompting a name change to Collie-Wellington (thus retiring an electorate name which had survived for 101 years). The new electorate had a Labor margin of only 2.6 per cent, but Mick Murray confirmed his reputation as a vote-winner by picking up a 6.7 per cent swing which found no parallel elsewhere in the region.

Capel also was created at the 2005 election, a product of rapid growth in coastal towns from Bunbury south through Busselton to Dunsborough and Yallingup. The new seat took in southern suburbs of Bunbury along with the rural parts of the Shire of Busselton, allowing Vasse to shrink into the coastal town areas. The seat was contested for the Liberals by local veterinarian Steve Thomas, who added a 4.1 per cent swing to the notional Liberal margin of 5.1 per cent. Thomas quickly gained a reputation as one of the Liberals' better parliamentary performers and was rewarded with the front-bench environment portfolio within a year of his election. He retained his position throughout the leadership of Paul Omodei from March 2006 to January 2008, despite having remained aligned with Matt Birney during the terminal phase of his leadership. When Buswell replaced Omodei as leader, Thomas was defeated in the deputy leadership vote by Dawesville MP Kim Hames, but was compensated with a promotion to Shadow Treasurer. His seniority was further confirmed when he along with Hames was discussed as a likely successor to Buswell if the chair-sniffing controversy claimed his scalp, and he confirmed he would nominate if the spill motion against Buswell succeeded.

Despite Thomas's rapid career progress, a question mark has lingered over his political future since the passage of one-vote one-value legislation in May 2005. This made inevitable the abolition of a South-West seat, requiring the sacrifice of Dan Sullivan (Leschenault), John Castrilli (Bunbury) or Thomas. The Liberal Party submission to the Boundaries Commission made Thomas look the most likely victim, as it proposed to protect Paul Omodei in his seat of Warren-Blackwood by having it absorb most of Capel. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported in June 2006 that Thomas had sought to avert the looming preselection brawl by offering his services to replace retiring Geoff Prosser in Forrest at last year's federal election, an idea which failed to appeal as it would necessitate a by-election in Capel. The problem was partly resolved by Sullivan's estrangement from the party, but Thomas has still had to settle for a seat which is notionally Labor.

Early in the campaign, Grahame Armstrong of the Sunday Times reported that Steve Thomas had “spoken in favour” of mineral sands miner Cable Sands while renting a house from them for $30 a week, which Thomas argued was all it was worth. Paul Murray of The West Australian claimed Labor had planted the story with Armstrong, a one-time press secretary to Geoff Gallop, whom he accused of running it even after it had been “factually destroyed by a letter from the company supplied to the newspaper before publication”. A Westpoll survey of 400 respondents showed the two candidates locked together on 50-50, while a report in The West Australian nine days out from polling day said the seat was “in play”.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN