The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

ALFRED COVE Independent 4.2% (versus Liberal)
Upper house region: South Metropolitan Federal divisions: Tangney/Fremantle
	JANET WOOLLARD Independent (top) CHRISTOPHER BACK Liberal (bottom) STEPHEN WARDELL-JOHNSON Christian Democratic Party MICHAEL BENNETT Greens CATHERINE BARRATT Labor

Alfred Cove covers affluent southern riverside suburbs from Bicton east through Attadale and Ardross, and on to Applecross and Mount Pleasant on the Canning River. The redistribution has removed areas in the south of the electorate, transferring 3000 voters in Melville (an area of relative Labor strength) to Willagee and 2100 in Booragoon to Bateman. Alfred Cove was created at the 1996 election upon the abolition of Melville in the west and Applecross in the east. It was inherited by the Liberal member for the former, Doug Shave, who came within 2.4 per cent of losing the seat to Penny Hearne, preselection rival turned independent candidate. As Fair Trading Minister, Shave was heavily implicated in the mortgage broking scandal which had much to do with the demise of the Court government, and he went into the 2001 election facing two formidable independents: Denise Brailey, a vigorous advocate for the mortgage broking victims, and Janet Woollard, an “independent Liberal” associated with the Liberals for Forests party founded by her husband Keith Woollard. Labor's tactical decision to stay out of the contest boosted Woollard and Brailey to 20.3 per cent and 20.1 per cent respectively, while Shave's vote collapsed to 32.8 per cent. Woollard emerged 7.4 per cent ahead of Shave at the final count, receiving 79.9 per cent of preferences.

At the 2005 election the Liberals fielded another ministerial casualty of 2001, Graham Kierath, who had been Workplace Relations Minister and member for Riverton. Kierath comfortably led the primary vote with 37.9 per cent, but Woollard emerged narrowly ahead of the Labor candidate and coasted to a 4.6 per cent victory on his preferences. The loss of Labor-voting areas in the redistribution cuts both ways for Woollard, reducing the risk she might fall behind Labor but shaving her two-candidate margin over the Liberals by 0.4 per cent. The Liberal candidate is local veterinarian Chris Back.

ASSESSMENT: Independent retain