The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

ALBANY Liberal 2.3%*
Upper house region: South West Federal division: O'Connor * Labor seat made notionally Liberal by redistribution
	DIANE EVERS Greens PETER WATSON Labor (top) SAM HARMA Nationals COLIN PYLE Family First JUSTIN MOSELEY Christian Democratic Party ANDREW PARTINGTON Liberal (bottom)


Two-candidate booth results shown only for booths in Albany in 2005. Stirling two-party results were NAT vs LIB.

The foundation of the southern coastal city of Albany predated the Swan River Colony by two years, and the electorate has existed without interruption since self-government began in 1890. Albany has been keenly contested between Labor and conservatives for most of its history, although Liberal member Leo Watt established an ascendancy from 1974 to 1993 that was only seriously threatened in 1983, when the defeat of the O'Connor government reduced his margin to 2.3 per cent. Watt's retirement in 1993 nearly produced a surprise win for the Nationals, whose candidate narrowly failed to bump Labor into third place and defeat Liberal candidate Kevin Prince on preferences. Prince went on to serve as Police Minister in the Court government until his defeat by Labor's Peter Watson in 2001, suffering a 24.9 per cent exodus to One Nation (16.2 per cent) and Liberals for Forests (8.0 per cent).

The one-vote one-value redistribution has brought in the required new voters by extending the electorate's reach from the city limits to the distant City of Albany municipal boundary. Taken from the abolished electorate of Stirling, the new area expands the electorate from 43 to 4312 square kilometres while providing only one-third of its voters. The entry of this area into the calculation means the notional 2.3 per cent margin would slightly exaggerate the Liberals' strength: Stirling was a Nationals-versus-Liberal contest at the 2005 election due to the retirement of Nationals member Monty House, in which any campaign effort by Labor would only have benefited the Liberals.

Peter Watson's dependence on One Nation preferences in 2001 raised doubts about his electoral longevity, but he was able to survive a 2.3 per cent two-party swing in 2005 with a margin of 1.4 per cent, his primary vote increasing from 31.6 per cent to 43.6 per cent. He has held a plethora of parliamentary secretary positions throughout his two terms without making it to the front-bench. The Liberals have again nominated their candidate from 2005, sports physiotherapist and former WA league footballer Andrew Partington. The entry of the Stirling areas might have been expected to have given the Nationals a boost, but their nomination of 20-year-old Sam Harma doesn't suggest they are confident. The Nationals have usually been unable to contest the seat due to the presence of a sitting Liberal member, and managed a disappointing 5.1 per cent when they returned to the field in 2005.

On the day the election was announced, Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reported that the internal polling that persuaded Troy Buswell to quit the Liberal leadership had them trailing slightly in Albany. The next day Alan Carpenter promised to increase the government's commitment to upgrading Albany Regional Hospital from $55 million to $160 million. Later in the campaign the Liberals promised to spend $225 million building a natural gas pipeline linking Albany and the similarly marginal Bunbury. In the second last week of the campaign Carpenter used the town's wind farm as the backdrop for an announcement spruiking Labor's renewable energy policy, provoking a hostile front-page response from The West Australian.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal notional retain