Western Australian Election 2005
LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY
| CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE | |||
| Region | Labor electorates | Non-Labor electorates | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| South West | (0.2) BUNBURY | ||
| East Metropolitan | (0.3) SWAN HILLS | DARLING RANGE (0.6) | East Metropolitan |
| South West | (0.7) MURRAY | ||
| North Metropolitan | (1.2) MINDARIE | KALGOORLIE (1.0) | Mining and Pastoral |
| South West | (2.6) COLLIE-WELLINGTON | KINGSLEY (2.5) | North Metropolitan |
| Agricultural | (2.7) GERALDTON | ||
| North Metropolitan | (3.1) WANNEROO | ||
| South Metropolitan | (3.1) RIVERTON | ||
| North Metropolitan | (3.1) JOONDALUP | VASSE (4.1) | South West |
| South West | (3.7) ALBANY | MURDOCH (4.1) | South Metropolitan |
| East Metropolitan | (4.8) BALLAJURA | SERPENTINE-JARRAHDALE (4.2) | East Metropolitan |
| Mining and Pastoral | (5.4) NORTH WEST COASTAL | HILLARYS (4.4) | North Metropolitan |
| East Metropolitan | (6.6) ARMADALE | CARINE (5.1) | North Metropolitan |
| Mining and Pastoral | (7.7) MURCHISON-EYRE | CAPEL (5.1) | South West |
| South West | (7.7) MANDURAH | DAWESVILLE (7.8) | South West |
| Mining and Pastoral | (8.5) KIMBERLEY | AVON (NAT 7.9) | Agricultural |
| North Metropolitan | (8.8) YOKINE | ALFRED COVE (LFF 8.2 vs LIB) | South Metropolitan |
| East Metropolitan | (10.4) SOUTHERN RIVER | NEDLANDS (9.1)* | North Metropolitan |
| North Metropolitan | (10.5) PERTH | GREENOUGH (10.6) | Agricultural |
| North Metropolitan | (10.9) BALCATTA | MOORE (11.6) | Agricultural |
| East Metropolitan | (11.0) MIDLAND | LESCHENAULT (11.8) | South West |
| East Metropolitan | (13.2) KENWICK | COTTESLOE (12.3) | North Metropolitan |
| South Metropolitan | (13.3) PEEL | STIRLING (NAT 12.0) | South West |
| East Metropolitan | (13.4) BELMONT | SOUTH PERTH (IND 14.1 vs LIB) | South Metropolitan |
| South Metropolitan | (14.1) VICTORIA PARK | WARREN-BLACKWOOD (14.7) | South West |
| North Metropolitan | (15.0) MAYLANDS | ||
| South Metropolitan | (16.0) ROCKINGHAM | CENTRAL KIMBERLEY-PILBARA (IND 16.2) | Mining and Pastoral |
| South Metropolitan | (17.7) FREMANTLE | ||
| East Metropolitan | (18.7) BASSENDEAN | WAGIN (NAT 19.0) | Agricultural |
| South Metropolitan | (19.4) COCKBURN | CHURCHLANDS (IND 20.9 vs LIB) | North Metropolitan |
| North Metropolitan | (21.0) GIRRAWHEEN | ROE (NAT 21.7) | Agricultural |
| South Metropolitan | (21.1) WILLAGEE | MERREDIN (NAT 22.5)** | Agricultural |
Key - Australian Labor Party Liberal Party National Party Independent "Region" classifications refer to the seven multi-member Legislative Council electorates, which cover between five and 15 lower house districts. Results shown are based on outcomes from the election held 10 February 2001, as adjusted for new boundaries published on 4 August 2003. New margins are estimates calculated by Antony Green for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library. * By-election held 9 June 2001 won by Sue Walker of the Liberal Party (3.4% vs GRN) ** By-election held 24 November 2001 won by Brendon Grylls of the National Party (6.6% vs LIB) | |||
|
ALBANY Labor 3.7%
This episode no doubt played a large part in delivering the seat to Labor's Peter Watson, who ran in the 1500 metres at the 1968 Mexico City Olympics and has lately been angling for a cabinet post. Now that the failures of the previous government have lost their sting, Watson will have to perform extremely strongly to retain a seat that had last been won by Labor in 1971. His chances were further harmed with the collapse in late December of Devaugh, a Bunbury-based company contracted to build the $20 million Albany justice complex. Local subcontractors were among the company's creditors, a matter of sufficient political sensitivity for the government to conduct a $621,000 bail-out. It subsequently emerged that Devaugh had been balance sheet insolvent since at least nine months prior to the awarding of the contract in March 2004. Robert Taylor of The West Australian suggests the government, and in particular Housing and Works Minister Nick Griffiths, was unduly eager to award the contract to a company based in Bunbury, its most marginal seat. Albany was one of four marginals in which the Coalition entered the campaign with a huge lead on the primary vote, according to 200-sample Westpoll surveys published in The West Australian the day before the election was announced. The Coalition vote here was at 56 per cent against 37 per cent for Labor. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported on December 21 that the Liberals were also ahead in their own internal polling. While the beneficiary of this will presumably be Liberal candidate Andrew Partington, a sports physiotherapist and former Western Australian Football League player, there is also the possibility that the seat might fall to Nationals candidate Beverley Ford, regional manager of the Master Builders' Association. The Nationals very nearly won the seat the last time they contested it, upon the retirement of long-term Liberal member Leo Watt in 1993. Their candidate narrowly failed to bump Labor into third place; had he succeeded, Labor's preferences would have put him ahead of Kevin Prince. Ford has been campaigning with sufficient vigour to suggest that she rates herself a chance. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: While a steady flow of newspaper headlines about the Devaugh collapse continued to imperil Labor's precarious hold on this seat as the campaign began, events since might have put them back in contention. The city will be a major beneficiary of one of Labor's big ticket election promises, a $300 million upgrade of regional ports. The canal proposal has also allowed them to cast doubts on the Coalition's ability to deliver on its major promises, namely the extension of the Dampier to Bunbury gas pipeline and construction of a $40 million hospital. The latter concept was described as "lunacy" by Health Minister Jim McGinty, a view which gained currency when Nationals candidate Beverley Ford dumped on the idea in the final week of the campaign. Ford's campaign manager has written to Peter Brent at Mumble talking up her chances; the Albany Advertiser reports that Professor David Black of Curtin University thinks her likely to finish third, but says she "can complicate the situation for the Liberal candidate". All five respondents in an Advertiser vox pop tipped Watson to win. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain After months of doom and gloom about their prospects here, Labor must have been pleasantly surprised to find their primary vote up 12.0 per cent to 43.6 per cent. Such was the void left by One Nation that Labor still suffered a 2.3 per cent hit on two-party preferred, since the Liberal vote was also up despite competition from the National Party. That competition proved surprisingly weak - Beverley Ford managed only 5.1 per cent of the vote despite a high-profile campaign, compared with the 27.4 per cent National Party vote when they last contested the seat in 1993. OUTCOME: Labor retain (1.4%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results ALFRED COVE Liberals for Forests 8.2% vs LIB
Even greater trouble lay ahead for Shave, who as Fair Trading Minister emerged as the chief government villain in the mortgage broking scandal which parted numerous elderly Western Australians from their life savings at the expense of oily entrepreneurs, many with close links to the Liberal Party. This time two formidable challengers emerged - independent Denise Brailey, a vigorous advocate for the mortgage broking victims, and Liberals for Forests candidate Janet Woollard, state president of the Australian Nursing Federation and wife of former Australian Medical Association head Keith Woollard. Labor's tactful decision to stay out of the contest boosted both Woollard and Brailey, who polled 20.3 per cent and 20.1 per cent respectively, while Doug Shave's vote collapsed to 32.8 per cent. Woollard widened her lead over Brailey on preferences and was favoured over Shave by 79.9 per cent of those who had voted for neither Shave nor herself (who accounted for 46.9 per cent of the vote), emerging 7.4 per cent ahead after preferences. In this neck of the woods, being among the four sitting Coalition MPs that One Nation did not to direct preferences against probably did Shave more harm than good (and wouldn't have done their own reputation much good either). The contest on this occasion is scarcely less interesting as the Liberal Party has preselected Shave's fellow ministerial casualty of the 2001 election, Graham Kierath. A comprehensive article on party factions in The West Australian on 6 June 2004 said Kierath "claims to be an independent but is placed firmly in the Shave camp by his opponents". Despite this, Shave as well as Kierath initially put their names forward for preselection (the member for Kalgoorlie, Matt Birney, also reportedly had his eyes on the seat). While Barnett loudly declared his opposition to the endorsement of Kierath or any other defeated ex-member, his deputy Dan Sullivan called a press conference apparently with the express intention of endorsing Kierath. That Kierath prevailed, and that Shave was initially successful in securing a winnable upper house position for South Metropolitan, was seen to indicate the influence of Kierath, Shave and the Noel Crichton-Browne faction in southern Perth branches. Another contestant was the three-times elected mayor of Melville City Council, Katherine Jackson, a long-term party member who once stood against Geoff Gallop in Victoria Park. Jackson quit the party after the Shave/Kierath faction froze her out from preselection for Alfred Cove, Murdoch and the federal seat of Tangney, although an unidentified council colleague quoted in the Applecross-Bicton Herald said it was "a common belief that by running as an independent, she is there to bleed primary votes from Dr Woollard to help Kierath's chances by giving him her preferences". Jackson is remaining coy as to whom she will direct preferences out of Woollard and Kierath; in early January, Kierath confirmed he was "in talks" with her. The hotly contested Liberal preselection suggests the party feels confident it will recover the seat. One who concurs is Michael Southwell, journalist and unsuccessful candidate for Greens upper house preselection, who wrote in the Western Beacon that Woollard "cannot and will not" retain the seat due to her failure to make an impact in the logging debate or the ongoing issues surrounding the finance brokers scandal. If Woollard really is in trouble, she was thrown a lifeline in early January when The West Australian's page two gossip column Inside Cover championed a "civil disobedience" campaign by Applecross traders rebelling against Melville City Council's demand that a poster promoting her be removed from a shop window. As well as being issued on Mayor Jackson's watch, the demand was prompted by a complaint lodged by one of Graham Kierath's campaign workers. It led to a rash of Woollard posters appearing locally as shop owners expressed solidarity in opposition to the demand, prompting talk of a High Court challenge if the council proceeded with a prosecution. They ultimately declined to do so. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Fresh from what The West Australian's Inside Cover dubbed the "Postergate" affair, Kierath lodged a complaint in the first week of the campaign over Woollard's description of herself as an "independent Liberal", which was given short shrift by the Western Australian Electoral Commission. On January 30, Colleen Egan of the Sunday Times reported that a privately conducted Patterson Market Research survey showed Kierath on 26 per cent, Woollard on 25 per cent and Labor on 17 per cent. Clearly the undecided had not been distributed, but on these figures Woollard would easily defeat Kierath with Labor preferences. Voters in the electorate have been bombarded with advertising from all mediums from a bewildering range of interested parties. Radio ads for independent challenger Katherine Jackson tell listeners not to believe advertisements and media reports saying she had cut a preference deal with Graham Kierath; workers' compensation lawyer Paul O'Halloran appears to think otherwise, and has gone to the trouble of running his own radio ads boosting Woollard (a "nice lady") and exhorting Jackson supporters to ignore her how-to-vote card and put Kierath last. Jackson is in fact running a split ticket on which those who prefer Labor are directed to put Woollard ahead of Kierath. Then there's Graham Kierath's blog, a project he has tackled with admirable enthusiasm. ASSESSMENT: Independent retain Despite early indications on election night that she might struggle to get ahead of the Labor candidate, Janet Woollard ended up leading 24.0 per cent to 22.8 per cent on the primary vote and widened the gap a further 1.9 per cent after preferences. Poll Bludger fan Graham Kierath did 4.9 per cent better than Doug Shave in scoring 37.9 per cent of the primary vote, but this was never going to be enough to hold back the combined force of the Woollard and Labor vote. Katherine Jackson scored a disappointing 6.8 per cent, and her preferences heavily favoured Woollard over Kierath. OUTCOME: Independent retain (4.6% vs LIB) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results ARMADALE Labor 6.6%
The redistribution has added lightly populated outer urban territory that doubles the electorate's area, while adding only 1765 new voters from Southern River and 545 from abolished Roleystone. Labor's margin has been cut from 7.1 to 6.6 per cent, although this calculation is complicated by the fact that the Liberals did not field a candidate in 2001. This decision was made to give a clear run to a high-profile independent challenger, Armadale mayor Roger Stubbs, who polled 24.2 per cent. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain "Reports that Labor are concerned she might lose her seat to the Liberals" were woefully misplaced, because Alannah MacTieranan's primary vote was up from 44.9 per cent to 55.0 per cent and she enjoyed a 6.4 per cent swing on two-party preferred. The religious parties performed strongly, with 5.5 per cent for the Christian Democratic Party and 3.2 per cent for Family First. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.0%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results AVON Nationals 7.9%
ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain With no intereference from the Liberals and little from One Nation, and his prestige boosted by the party leadership, Max Trenorden's primary vote was up from 24.9 per cent to 63.8 per cent. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (22.1%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results BALCATTA Labor 10.9%
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: While Balcatta is all but certain to remain in the Labor fold, Liberals are keen to note that they won the federal seat of Stirling by picking up swings in the order of 6 to 8 per cent in the booths located in this electorate, whereas two large booths in Carine swung to Labor. ASSESSMENT: Labor notional retain Balcatta did drift slightly in the Liberals' favour, with an improvement of 2.5 per cent on the primary vote and 1.1 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor notional retain (9.8%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results BALLAJURA Labor 4.8%
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: One of the great mysteries of the campaign has been the Liberal Party's apparently blasé attitude towards this traditionally marginal seat, which is nowhere being discussed as a potential gain. The Liberals struggled to find a replacement when their initial candidate, Swan city councillor Mel Congerton, withdrew in the middle of last year. It was not until the week before the election was called that the nomination went to 24-year-old David Maxwell, touted as a manager in the retail industry who did a year as an articled clerk with a Perth law firm. No doubt he is a fine young man with a bright future, but he lacks the credentials and experience normally expected from a candidate taking on an established member in an important marginal seat. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Liberals' apparent decision to write this one off hit hard on the scoreboard, with the Labor vote up from 47.1 per cent to 56.2 per cent and the Liberal vote down from 38.5 per cent to 29.5 per cent. On current form, it's hard to believe that the seat was held by a Liberal minister as recently as 2001. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.5%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results BASSENDEAN Labor 18.7%
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The loss of Clive Brown's personal vote and negative publicity over factional brawling might account for an easing in the Labor vote from 56.1 per cent to 52.9 per cent, and a 5.0 per cent swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred. Neither figure would give Martin Whitely cause for sleepless nights. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.7%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results BELMONT Labor 13.4%
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Liberal vote was up more (from 24.4 per cent to 31.5 per cent) than Labor's (from 51.8 per cent to 52.9 per cent), and they picked up a small but ultimately insignificant two-party swing. Eric Ripper might have hoped for more from his high profile within the government, but electoral popularity is rarely a treasurer's lot. OUTCOME: Labor retain (10.8%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results BUNBURY Labor 0.2%
Labor's successful candidate was Tony Dean, cat-hating former Bunbury city councillor who found swearing allegiance to Her Majesty to be "like swallowing glass". The Liberals have nominated a strong candidate in Bunbury mayor John Castrilli, who in May was accused by Dean of holding up state-funded council projects in order to "sabotage" him. The government has been copping heat locally over "land grab" legislation allowing it to rezone privately owned bushland as public open space, and a decision to review the proposal in early December was widely seen as an attempt to defuse the issue in the lead-up to the election. Bunbury was one of four crucial marginal seats which were the subject of 200-sample Westpoll surveys published in The West Australian the day before the election was announced. Each showed Labor heading for a train wreck, with the Liberals on 55 per cent in Bunbury against 36 per cent for Labor and 8 per cent for the Greens. In June the Bunbury Mail published a "phone poll" of an undisclosed number of respondents which had the Liberals on 30 per cent and Labor on 23.4 per cent with "almost half" undecided, a sadly typical feature of polls conducted by small newspapers. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported on December 13 that "both sides are pretty well ready to call Bunbury for the Liberals". CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Despite Labor's promise of a $300 million upgrade of regional ports and the Coalition's commitment to the city-centric canal project, it remains a firmly established item of conventional wisdom that this seat will fall to the Liberals. ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN Early results on the night pointed towards the Liberal shoo-in that everyone had anticipated (give or take Peter Brent at Mumble), but in the end it proved a much closer run thing than expected. Both major parties were up about 7 per cent on the primary vote, but the absence of a One Nation candidate directing substantial preferences to Labor affected the preference distribution enough to switch the result. Thus ends the myth of Bunbury as bellwether. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (0.4%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results CAPEL Liberal 5.1%
ASSESSMENT: Liberal notional retain Like a number of other apparently attractive National Party candidates, Murray Scott performed disappointingly with 9.1 per cent of the primary vote. That left Steve Thomas mopping up most of the One Nation vote from 2001 to boost the Liberal vote from 32.5 per cent to 44.2 per cent. A strong 5.6 per cent for Family First, although this was boosted by their top position on the ballot paper. OUTCOME: Liberal notional retain (9.2%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results CARINE Liberal 5.1%
ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Some had Carine down as a possible Labor gain in the event of a blowout, but it wasn't that kind of election. Katie Hodson-Thomas's 48.3 per cent of the primary vote was 4.0 per cent better than she managed on more favourable electoral boundaries in 2001, when she lost votes to Liberals for Forests. A strong 11.4 per cent performance for the Greens, who have a solid constituency in Perth's northern coastal suburbs. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (4.7%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results CENTRAL KIMBERLEY-PILBARA Independent 16.2% vs ALP
Graham's retirement presented an opportunity for senior upper house member Tom Stephens who had lost a winnable position on the ticket for Mining and Pastoral due to affirmative action rules. After the death of Labor's federal candidate for Kalgoorlie, Kevin Richards, a deal was brokered in which the nomination went to Stephens who would have Central Kimberley-Pilbara to fall back on if unsuccessful, as it proved. Stephens first entered state parliament in 1982 and served in minor portfolios in the Lawrence government and major ones (including housing and local government) in the Gallop government. Liberal candidate Trona Young is a Port Hedland councillor whom The West Australian described as "a prominent figure in the council's campaign for a greater share of mining royalties from the State Government". The report noted that "Larry Graham named Ms Young as his possible replacement along with Port Hedland mayor Brent Rundler and former ATSIC WA chairman Barry Taylor". Taylor is running as an independent after failing to win endorsement for Labor, who he says "excluded" him from the preselection process. He has the backing of Larry Graham and is threatening not to direct preferences to Stephens. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Writing in the North West Telegraph, Larry Graham argues this seat "should be a safe bet for Labor" due to the Pilbara boom and a notional 16.5 per cent margin, but says the party is nervous that "the flow of the Libs, Barry Taylor, and the Greens preferences could see either Taylor or Young defeat Stephens". The scenario Graham paints for a Liberal win involves Young receiving large volumes of preferences from the Greens and a former ATSIC WA chairman, which hardly seems likely. The real threat for Stephens is that Greens preferences might put Taylor ahead of Young, whose preferences might deliver him the seat if Stephens' primary vote is substantially below 50 per cent. Graham reports that Taylor "started badly but has picked up the pace recently". In the last week of the campaign Taylor endorsed a boycott of the election by the community of Ngalingkadji (where 55 votes were cast at the federal election, 35 for of them for the same Tom Stephens who will be Labor candidate at the state poll) in protest over lack of housing maintenance. ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN Things returned to normal in this natural Labor electorate, with Tom Stephens scoring an absolute majority on the primary vote. The Greens scored a surprisingly strong 9.0 per cent, although it was boosted slightly by the donkey vote. They outscored the highly fancied Barry Taylor, who managed a disappointing 8.5 per cent. OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (13.6%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results CHURCHLANDS Independent 20.9% vs LIB
While remaining centred on the affluent suburbs of Floreat, Wembley Downs and Woodlands, the redistribution has delivered Churchlands 8000 new voters to the north from the abolished Innaloo (including the coastal centre of Scarborough and the light industrial precinct of Osborne Park), and moved roughly 3000 voters from around Wembley to Nedlands and another 1700 from City Beach to Cottesloe. Antony Green estimates that the absorption of more Labor-friendly territory from Innaloo has improved Constable's two-candidate margin over Liberal by 1.8 per cent. ASSESSMENT: Independent retain Yet more confirmation that Elizabeth Constable is in parliament for as long as she wants. Constable's primary vote fell only slightly despite the unfamiliar new territory added by the redistribution, while the Liberals sunk low enough that Labor were able to take second place. OUTCOME: Independent retain (21.6% vs ALP) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results COCKBURN Labor 19.4%
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Little change on the primary vote, but fewer One Nation votes in the minor party pool translated into a 3.0 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals. OUTCOME: Labor retain (16.4%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results COLLIE-WELLINGTON Labor 2.6%
The demise of the electorate of Collie, which had existed since 1908, is indicative of the long-term decline of the coal-mining town of that name (although the new electorate is actually smaller than the old, which also covered a large area of lightly-populated rural territory). Collie had been held by three Labor members from its creation until 1989 when the decline of the union vote and an unfavourable redistribution helped deliver it to Hilda Turnbull of the National Party. After that it became a finely poised marginal seat, as indicated by the Lawrence government's decision to favour a messy and expensive power station fired by low-grade Collie brown coal over the cleaner and cheaper gas-fired alternative (which availed them not in Collie at the following election, much less anywhere else). Mick Murray, former president of the Collie Combined Coalmining Unions Council and twice-unsuccessful candidate at previous elections, defeated Turnbull by the narrowest of margins in 2001 when the Coalition vote fell by 19.2 per cent. Turnbull was probably not helped by the Liberals' decision to turn this into one of the election's many pointless three-cornered contests, in which they managed 15.8 per cent compared with Turnbull's 24.3 per cent. The direct beneficiaries were newcomers One Nation (15.1 per cent) and the Greens (7.0 per cent), with Labor gaining indirectly - so heavily did preferences flow to them that they won a decisive 9.4 per cent swing on two-party preferred despite being down 5.2 per cent on the primary vote. In May 2004 internal Liberal polling was leaked to The West Australian, presumably from sources hostile to Colin Barnett, showing the Liberals travelling poorly in a number of marginal seats including this one. Labor was said to be ahead 61-39 compared with roughly 53-47 at the 2001 election. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: As in other regional electorates, Labor has been arguing that the Coalition's canal commitment raises doubts over its ability to deliver on local campaign promises, while the Liberals have suggested that Labor's preference deal with the Greens included an agreement to scotch a new coal-fired power station for the area. On February 13, the Sunday Times reported it had been leaked details of Liberal candidate Craig Carbone's drink driving record, saying it had been told four convictions were recorded against him. Carbone admitted having a conviction and complained about the leak to the police commissioner. It was noted that Murray's wife worked at Collie police station, though Murray denied her involvement. There were dark mutterings from the Liberal camp about a perceived lack of urgency surrounding the investigation. On February 19, Robert Wainwright of the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Labor strategists expected to hold the seat. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain An outstanding result for Mick Murray who lifted Labor's primary vote from 37.5 per cent to 50.5 per cent, with a two-party swing of 6.7 per cent. The Coalition vote hardly improved from 2001 despite a 13.8 per cent collapse for One Nation. The 11.3 per cent vote for the National Party suggests they are unlikely to get lucky again here in future. OUTCOME: Labor retain (9.3%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results COTTESLOE Liberal 12.3%
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Colin Barnett suffered widespread derision after telling a Cottesloe candidates' forum on February 16 that he would place a five-storey limit on coastal high-rise development, but only in his own electorate. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Such was Colin Barnett's electoral appeal that the aura of the party leadership did not deliver him a swing in his own seat. The Liberal primary vote did increase from 50.9 per cent to 55.7 per cent, but a surprisingly strong performance from the Greens (up 3.1 per cent to 16.6 per cent) sent Labor enough preferences to shift the pendulum their way. This was despite a weak improvement in their own primary vote, from 22.2 per cent to 24.7 per cent. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (11.7%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results DARLING RANGE Liberal 0.6%
Frank Lindsey went on to successfully challenge Day for Liberal preselection in December 2003, but the result was overturned by the party's state council in a move linked by a Crikey correspondent to a falling out between Lindsey and his erstwhile benefactors, Senators Chris Ellison and Ian Campbell. As well as being "for forests", Lindsey is renowned as a Catholic conservative and pro-lifer who was riled by Day's pro-choice stance as Health Minister in the Court government. The Poll Bludger hears that those running the successful Liberal campaign for Hasluck had concerns about his ideological inclinations and potential spillover effects into the federal campaign. Day, who is closely aligned with Colin Barnett, went on to lose the energy portfolio to Max Trenorden in the May 2004 reshuffle but has maintained education. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: John Day's support for abortion reform legislation in 1999 again came back to haunt him when Family First announced they would direct preferences against him. The Poll Bludger is informed that despite the narrow margin, the Liberals do not harbour grave fears for this seat. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain A correction after the 2001 aberration, when an 18.8 per cent share of the Liberal vote was consumed by Liberals for Forests and One Nation. The Liberal vote was up 10.3 per cent this time, and while this still left Day short of his 1996 vote it was enough to deliver him a badly needed 2.6 per cent swing against the overall trend. Labor's Geoff Stallard can console himself with the knowledge that he has lifted Labor's primary vote over three successive elections, from 20.8 per cent to 27.5 per cent in 1996, then to 31.5 per cent in 2001, and now to 37.7 per cent. The Greens would be very disappointed that their primary vote fell from 8.2 per cent to 7.1 per cent, despite the 10.4 per cent Liberals for Forests vote from 2001 being up for grabs. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (3.2%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results DAWESVILLE Liberal 7.8%
The Liberal candidate is former Court government Housing Minister Kim Hames, who lost the northern suburbs seat of Yokine in 2001. Hames won preselection by one vote, an outcome achieved without demur from Opposition Leader Colin Barnett who was otherwise resistant to preselection of defeated ex-members (specifically Graham Kierath and Doug Shave). The runner-up was Mandurah city councillor Vern Goff, who is instead running for the National Party. This appears to be in breach of the agreement Liberal preselection candidates are required to sign saying they will "not in any circumstances stand against an endorsed Liberal candidate without the consent of the party", but the Liberal Party has declined to take legal action. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Family First announced on February 10 that they would not direct preferences to Kim Hames ahead of Labor due to his support for abortion reform legislation in 1999. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain An unspectacular showing for the Nationals with 6.8 per cent, but they helped push the combined Coalition vote over 50 per cent. Labor's vote was up even more, and they managed a 3.7 per cent swing on two-party preferred. It could be argued that Kim Hames did no better than the maligned Colin Edwardes, who was defeated with a 3.3 per cent swing in Kingsley. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (4.1%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results FREMANTLE Labor 17.7%
Last time around McGinty faced a high-profile Greens challenger in Dr Ian Alexander, who held Perth from 1989 to 1993, firstly for Labor and then as an independent; this time he faces Jim Scott, who has held a seat for the corresponding upper house region of South Metropolitan since 1993. Dr Keith Woollard, former Australian Medical Association head and husband of Alfred Cove MP Janet Woollard, had proposed to field a candidate under the party name "Fremantle Hospital Support Group" which is instead fielding candidates only for the upper house. In November 2004, Woollard provided local newspaper the Western Beacon with polling by Patterson Market Research showing McGinty on 35 per cent, Scolaro on 23 per cent, Scott on 13 per cent and 3 per cent for "others", with 26 per cent undecided. The newspaper report wrongly concluded that this meant McGinty was in trouble. The Liberal candidate is Rita Scolaro, who also contested in 2001. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain No dramatic changes from 2001. Labor and the Greens were down slightly and the Liberals were up a bit, which translated into a 3.3 per cent two-party swing against Labor. The ultimate failure of the Fremantle Hospital Support Group to field a candidate was a surprise, and might have cost them a freak upper house win in South Metropolitan. OUTCOME: Labor retain (14.4%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results GERALDTON Labor 2.7%
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: An opinion poll published in the Sunday Times on January 30 showed Labor with a handy lead of 49 per cent to 41 per cent on two-party preferred (with 10 per cent undecided), although the sample was less than 200. Where Paul Murray tips the electorate bearing his surname as his litmus test seat for the election, Perth academic Peter van Onselen nominates Geraldton, which Murray rates "very difficult" for the Liberals despite predicting they will win the election. Robert Taylor of The West Australian and Robert Wainwright of the Sydney Morning Herald respectively report that Liberal and Labor are both optimistic. The popularity of local boy Geoff Gallop is expected to give Labor a boost. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Shane Hill needed a dramatic improvement on the primary vote to retain the seat he won against the odds in 2001, and he got one - from 26.6 per cent to 44.5 per cent. Such was One Nation's impact last time that the collective Coalition vote was up 8.5 per cent as well, of which the Nationals' share was down from 9.0 per cent to 4.6 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (2.1%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results GIRRAWHEEN Labor 21.0%
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Family First will direct preferences to Jon Kelly ahead of Margaret Quirk. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Jon Kelly gave Margaret Quirk little to worry about, polling 15.4 per cent to finish third behind the Liberals on 18.2 per cent. Quirk herself managed 52.3 per cent, only 5.7 per cent less than her vote in 2001. The Poll Bludger will try to remember to keep an eye on Kelly's performance at the forthcoming local government elections. OUTCOME: Labor retain (23.4%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results GREENOUGH Liberal 10.6%
The electorate covers about 200 kilometres of coastline from Kalbarri southwards, with an interruption at Geraldton which forms its own electorate. It also extends some distance inland, taking in Mullewa, Morawa and Northampton. The redistribution has shifted more than 2000 voters to the relatively declining Geraldton, increasing the Liberal margin over Labor from 9.4 per cent to 10.6 per cent. With the retirement of member Kevin Minson in 2001, Greenough produced a stunning performance for One Nation who polled 27.5 per cent to take second place. The Liberals also had a Nationals candidate to contend with, but he accounted for only 10.2 per cent from the 36.7 per cent dive in the Liberal vote. Edwards ultimately prevailed over One Nation with a 9.3 per cent two-party margin and went on to win a quick promotion to shadow cabinet, currently holding the planning and local government portfolios. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The Greens will direct preferences to the Nationals ahead of the Liberals, part of a deal that will deliver them preferences over religious and rural minor parties in the upper house regions of Agricultural and South West. This arrangement led to a harsh exchange between state Nationals leader Max Trenorden and the federal Liberal member for O'Connor, Wilson Tuckey. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain For Grant Woodhams, hurdle one was overcoming Labor - this he managed quite comfortably, polling 26.1 per cent to Labor's 22.9 per cent. Jamie Edwards' 38.8 per cent was actually an improvement on the Liberal vote from 2001, but on that occasion the Nationals finished well behind Labor. He needed to get much closer to 50 per cent to stay ahead of Woodhams after distribution of Labor preferences. Greenough again produced the state's highest vote for One Nation, even if it was only 4.8 per cent. Having a candidate called Pauline might have helped. OUTCOME: NATIONALS GAIN (1.3% vs LIB) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results HILLARYS Liberal 4.4%
Since the election Johnson has been something of a thorn in his leader's side. The West Australian reported on 27 May 2004 that he had given up the job of leader of opposition business in the Assembly because he refused to work with Barnett's chief-of-staff, Richard Ellis, with whom he had a vocal disagreement within earshot of Labor staffers. The problem related to Johnson's friend and ally, upper house member Alan Cadby (who later attempted to hook up with Family First), who was dumped to the unwinnable fifth position on the North Metropolitan ticket. However Johnson maintained his tourism portfolio. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain With the decline of One Nation, both major parties were up about 4 per cent on the primary vote with little change on two-party preferred. This was somewhat better than the Liberals managed in most other northern suburbs seats, testament no doubt to the benefits of incumbency. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (4.2%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results JOONDALUP Labor 3.1%
There were reports in early 2004 that the Liberals were not hopeful here, but the situation seems to have changed as the election has drawn closer. Highly damaging Liberal Party marginal seat polling leaked to The West Australian in May 2004 showed the Liberals trailing 60-40 on two-party preferred, with Colin Barnett's approve/disapprove split of 17-32 comparing with 48-20 for Geoff Gallop. The accompanying report said the party was getting "leverage" neither from its leader nor its candidate, Dean Solly, manager of the Arena Joondalup sports centre. More recently, the paper has described Solly as "the Liberals' poster boy for change" and reported that the party was "buoyed by the numbers", with Labor "considered under pressure because of local issues". These relate to the construction of the Mitchell Freeway, the artery linking the northern suburban coastal corridor to the city. Both parties support an extension of the freeway to Burns Beach Road, but only the Coalition is promising extra funding to provide for the section through the suburb of Connolly to be "cut in" at the same level as adjoining areas regardless of the cost. Those who doubt that the Liberals think this is a winner are invited to inspect the effort that has gone into this press release. A Westpoll survey of 200 voters published in The West Australian the day before the election was announced had the Liberals with a primary vote lead of 53 per cent to 38 per cent. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Liberals' clear failure to win this seat was the earliest indication on election night that Colin Barnett was not going to make it. With One Nation out of the field altogether, Labor's vote was up 6.0 per cent compared with only a 1.9 per cent improvement for the Liberals. The pro-Labor impact of One Nation preferences in 2001 is indicated by Labor's very modest 0.2 per cent boost on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (3.3%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results KALGOORLIE Liberal 1.0%
A rising star of the party's right with links to Noel Crichton-Browne, Birney has wasted little time in presenting himself as a potential leader. In August 2002, speculation that he had immediate designs on Colin Barnett's position reached a point where he felt compelled to hose it down, saying: "I have an apprenticeship to do before I would or should be considered for a role like that". Many had expected Birney to seek a safer seat in the city, and Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported that South Perth "could have been his" when independent incumbent Phillip Pendal retired. However, he is by all accounts well ahead here in party internal polling. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The field of candidates includes trans-sexual Hay Street brothel owner Leigh Varis Beswick, who was on Kalgoorlie-Boulder City Council from 1999 to 2003. Her success in polling 3000 votes at the non-compulsory council election has not gone unremarked. A week out from the election she announced she would direct preferences to Matt Birney. Labor's promise that any future one-vote one-value reforms would not affect the Mining and Pastoral region suggests they believe they are in the hunt, as this is the region's only truly marginal seat. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Kalgoorlie will again be a very interesting contest when new Liberal leader Matt Birney exits the political stage, but for the time being he has cornered the market in this traditional Labor seat. For the second election running Birney turned in the best personal performance of any Liberal candidate, increasing his primary vote from 38.6 per cent to 53.1 per cent and picking up an 8.6 per cent two-party swing. Leigh Varis Beswick failed to live up to the hype, finishing behind the Greens with just 4.0 per cent of the primary vote. Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results OUTCOME: Liberal retain (9.6%) KENWICK Labor 13.2%
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A fairly typical outcome, with a plunge in support for One Nation (from 11.7 per cent to a donkey vote-boosted 4.2 per cent) making way for a small increase in the Liberal vote and a bigger one for Labor. When the dust settled there was very little change on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.6%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results KIMBERLEY Labor 8.5%
Bridge's departure and Labor's no-show in 1996 meant there were no reference points for the 2001 election, which was further complicated by the nomination of Derby-West Kimberley mayor Peter McCumstie as National Party candidate after he had earlier been courted by Labor. The Coalition were burdened by the the steadfast refusal of Colin Barnett, then Energy Minister, to countenance a "tidal power" station at Derby in the lead-up to the election despite furious lobbying from Kimberley locals, the National Party and elements of the Liberals including Wilson Tuckey. Labor candidate Carol Martin, a social worker and the wife of an independent candidate who scored 29.3 per cent in 1996, scored a surprisingly clear-cut victory to become Australia's first female aboriginal parliamentarian. Martin received 42.3 per cent of the vote compared with a combined 32.2 per cent for the Coalition candidates, ultimately prevailing with a two-party margin of 10.5 per cent. The redistribution has resulted in the loss of about 1000 voters around Fitzroy Crossing to Central Kimberley-Pilbara, a development that did not please Martin given the large aboriginal population in this area. Their removal has cut her margin from 10.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. On December 21, Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported that internal polling had the Liberals very excited about their prospects. Their candidate is Ron "Sos" Johnston, president of the Broome Chamber of Commerce, who has had to officially change his name to get his widely-known nickname on the ballot paper. Peter McCumstie has not ruled out standing again, either for the Nationals (who were also talking up their chances in mid-2003) or as an independent. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: In an article in the Pilbara News on February 3, retiring Pilbara MP Larry Graham said "the ALP heavies" were "nervous" that the Liberals would consolidate the 2001 vote from One Nation and the Nationals (Peter McCumstie is not running after all), capitalising on issues including "the Derby hospital, one vote one value, tidal power, the electoral office, the living arrangements, local government issues". It is generally thought that the canal project has put an end to this possibility, despite Ernie Bridge's renown as champion of a similar concept. Ron Sos Johnston had not been given prior warning of Colin Barnett's announcement during the leaders' debate and declared himself "gobsmacked" when he heard it, while an evidently delighted Carol Martin declared the policy a "harebrained scheme". Johnston told a candidates' debate on the Wednesday before the election that it was "no secret that Barnett and myself are at loggerheads over the canal project and how he has gone about it". The one-vote one-value issue has also been neutralised in this electorate by Geoff Gallop's rather odd announcement late in the campaign that any reform would not affect the Mining and Pastoral upper house region. The Liberals appear not to have given up hope, unveiling late-campaign promises including improved air services and a $500,000 birthing suite at Kimberley Hospital. Paul Murray thinks it more likely to fall than North West Coastal, and Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported on election eve that the Liberals are hopeful of a surprise. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Despite local hostility over the canal proposal, this unpredictable electorate swung to the Liberals with enough force to make life uncomfortable for Carol Martin. Her vote was down 0.4 per cent from the redistribution-adjusted Labor vote from 2001, while Ron Sos Johnston gathered almost all of the combined 2001 vote for the Liberals, the Nationals and One Nation (who managed a dismal 1.2 per cent this time around). The clearest manifestation of the canal's impact was the strong performance by the Greens, whose primary vote was up 10.0 per cent to 14.7 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (3.3%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results KINGSLEY Liberal 2.5%
As Cowan division president, Colin Edwardes has been associated with a "northern alliance" of northern suburbs Crichton-Browne opponents including Richard Ellis, Perth division president and chief-of-staff to Colin Barnett, Peter Collier, Curtin division president and Legislative Council candidate, and former Stirling division president and federal election candidate Bob Cronin. North Metropolitan MLC Alan Cadby and his lower house ally Rob Johnson, the member for Hillarys, blamed this group for Cadby's demotion to an unwinnable spot on the ticket. Crikey reports that in the past term Cheryl Edwardes has drifted towards former opponent Barnett, who defeated her for the deputy leadership in 1993 after a tied vote and a draw from a hat. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Appearing on Paul Murray's 6PR morning program the day before the election, Brian Burke and Crichton-Browne agreed this was the one seat that Labor has a serious prospect of picking up from the Liberals, with Crichton-Browne taking the opportunity to complain about the way the preselection was conducted. Crichton-Browne also argued that voters felt one parliamentary superannuation payment was enough for the Edwardes household, but both he and Burke ultimately tipped the Liberals to hold the seat. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain The icing on the cake for Labor came with their first ever win in this seat, which was created in 1989. The figures no doubt tell a fascinating story about internal Liberal rivalries, although the Poll Bludger is insufficiently versed in local party affairs to tell it. "Community 1st" candidate Marie Evans, wife of former federal MP Richard Evans, can presumably thank disgruntled local Liberals for her impressive 11.5 per cent, although her preferences in fact favoured Labor slightly. Evans' impact, along with the relatively muted One Nation vote from 2001, meant the combined major party vote was little changed from last time. The decisive factor was the 3 per cent of the vote that went directly from Liberal to Labor. In Colin Edwardes' defence, the 3.3 per cent two-party swing was similar to that in other northern suburbs electorates, and local observers rated a strong campaign from Labor's Judy Hughes as an equally significant factor in the outcome. OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (0.8%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results LESCHENAULT Liberal 11.8%
Despite his seniority, Sullivan's political future appeared in jeopardy mid-term due to a preselection challenge from local party figures who accused him of stacking branches in support of his preferred candidate in Capel. Sullivan enemy Bernie Masters told Crikey that Sullivan had made himself vulnerable by moving too many of his Leschenault loyalists into Capel to influence the outcome there. In the event the proposed challenger, Michelle Riley, was persuaded not to proceed by, among others, Colin Barnett. Sullivan's elevation to the health portfolio when Mike Board announced his retirement was also described by The West Australian as an "olive branch" from Barnett. In mid-2004 Labor succeeded in making an issue out of a $47,000 bonus Sullivan continued to receive as Deputy Opposition Leader after the mid-2004 Coalition agreement gave that title to National Party leader Max Trenorden. The resulting publicity was enough that Sullivan felt compelled to forego the bonus, despite the fact that parliamentary rules allowed for it. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Labor's initial choice of candidate, David Tagliaferri, withdrew shortly after the election was announced due to family reasons. Myalup vegetable grower Anthony Marinovich was nominated in his place. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Dan Sullivan came back to earth after the huge boost that forestry issues delivered him in 2001. His primary vote was down 1.3 per cent, while Labor's was up 9.1 per cent. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (7.7%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results MANDURAH Labor 7.7%
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Despite Labor's comfortable margin, this could still be worth keeping an eye on as a roughie in future elections. Their vote has been boosted at the last two elections, firstly by the finance broking scandal and now by the Perth to Mandurah railway. David Templeman enjoyed a huge lift in the Labor primary vote from 43.3 per cent to 57.6 per cent, while the Liberals hardly budged despite the 11.9 per cent that went missing from One Nation. OUTCOME: Labor retain (12.3%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results MAYLANDS Labor 15.0%
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Little change from 2001, with Labor and Liberal both up slightly in a field vacated by One Nation (who scored 6.6 per cent last time). An unusually strong result for the Greens, whose best performances interestingly came in safe Labor seats. Here they were up from 8.7 per cent to 11.2 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (16.5%) Click here for Western Australian Electoral Commission results MERREDIN Nationals 22.5%
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