THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

SOUTH BARWON
Labor 5.0%

South Barwon includes the outer Geelong suburbs of Highton, Belmont and Grovedale south-west of the Barwon River, and extends a further 600 square kilometres to the west and south, covering the coast from Barwon Heads west beyond Torquay. The first of these areas accounts for about 70 per cent of the voters; most of the booths here returned Labor two-party votes in the high 50s in 2002. Labor did similarly well in the coastal towns of Torquay and Barwon Heads, with the only Liberal majorities coming in small inland rural booths and the Bellaire Primary School booth in Geelong. The win for Michael Crutchfield (left) was Labor's first since the seat was created in 1976, and was achieved with a 10.1 per cent swing that added to the 5.5 per cent he achieved on his first attempt in 1999. The defeated Liberal member was Alister Paterson, who came to the seat in 1992 after a Jeff Kennett-backed preselection win over sitting member Harley Dickinson. Michael Crutchfield is a former Geelong mayor and CFA fire fighter, and member of a Right faction that has established ascendancy in the Geelong area over the past few years. He has developed something of a combative reputation in his first term, notably when it emerged he had sent sarcastic responses to emails from opponents of the Geelong ring road route. The Liberals have nominated funeral director and former Geelong deputy mayor Michael King (right), who won preselection ahead of Surf Coast Shire deputy mayor Ron Humphrey. On October 16, the Geelong Advertiser published a survey of "more than 300" respondents which, after distribution of the 16 per cent undecided, had King leading Crutchfield 50 per cent to 33 per cent.

Locals were angered in July when the government made its long-delayed decision on where the Geelong ring road bypass would end: at a set of traffic lights at Waurn Ponds, which would handle 30,000 vehicles a day. The government responded to the subsequent uproar (which included criticism from the Prime Minister) by promising to spend $3 million on planning a fourth stage to handle the anticipated congestion, which Liberal candidate Michael King claims would lead to a $310 million cost blowout. The Liberals have promised to investigate alternative bypass route options further to the west. Another local roads issue is the ongoing calls for a duplication of Princes Highway between Geelong and Colac, scene of frequent fatal accidents.

In the second week of the campaign, Ted Baillieu promised a Liberal government would spend $80 million duplicating Princes Highway from Waurn Ponds west to Winchelsea in the neighbouring electorate of Polwarth. Earlier that week, the Geelong Advertiser said there were "reports that Labor strategists had all but given up hope of holding the seat". Labor nonetheless felt compelled to commit an extra $62.5 million to creating a continous link to Anglesea Road via a two kilometre overpass, even if the federal government did not agree to provide funding. According to Poll Bludger commenter Rebecca, "Anglesea Road is in the middle of nowhere, and it only highlights the bizarre siting of the entire ring-road all-along". On the final weekend of the campaign the Geelong Advertiser followed up on its October 16 survey with a second poll, albeit of only 254 respondents (of whom 67 were reported as undecided). It nonetheless backed up the thrust of the earlier poll in having Liberal candidate Michael King leading Labor incumbent Michael Crutchfield 49 per cent to 38 per cent after distribution of the undecided.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN