THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

MITCHAM
Labor 7.7%

The electorate of Mitcham is located in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, extending east from Blackburn to Mitcham itself with Whitehorse Road and the Belgrave/Lilydale line neatly bisecting it from west to east. Mitcham was held for the Liberals from its creation in 1967 until the 1982 election that brought John Cain's Labor government to power, in turn changing hands when Jeff Kennett came to power in 1992. The successful candidate was Roger Pescott, who contested the seat after his existing electorate of Bennettswood (which he won from Labor in 1985) was bequeathed to Geoff Coleman after his seat of Syndal was abolished. Pescott had come within one vote of defeating Kennett in a leadership challenge in 1987, and became deputy leader when the hapless Alan Brown successfully deposed Kennett two years later. Despite the role Pescott played in returning Kennett to the leadership in 1991, the rivalry between the two continued to fester and Pescott was by all accounts deeply unsatisfied with his junior status in cabinet as Industry Services Minister. He was dumped altogether after the 1996 election, and exacted revenge the following year by announcing his resignation in protest over the goverment's controversial nobbling of the powers of the Auditor-General. With the Auditor-General issue at front and centre stage during the subsequent by-election campaign, Labor's Tony Robinson (left) won the seat with a 16 per cent swing. Robinson retained his seat at the 1999 election by a narrow 0.5 per cent, after a 10 per cent correction from the by-election, and secured his hold with a 7.6 per cent swing in 2002. Before entering parliament he worked with then-Opposition Leader John Brumby and later for federal Wills MP Kelvin Thomson, although unlike the latter he is associated with the Right faction. The Liberal candidate is Philip Daw (right), a "self-employed consultant and business development manager" and until recently president of the Monash Ratepayers Association.

The electorate contains the northern end of the EastLink road project (although the media's "Mitcham to Frankston Freeway" designation is a misnomer – its northern terminus is in Nunawading), which accordingly looms as the major local election issue. The Bracks government's single most contentious action in its second term was its April 2003 decision to impose tolls, going against its 2002 election promise that the road would be toll-free. A Herald Sun-McNair Ingenuity poll conducted shortly after pointed to 10 per cent swings against Labor here and in Frankston. Then Opposition Leader Robert Doyle sought to capitalise on the resulting outrage with his October 2004 promise to buy back the contract and make the road a freeway, an obviously unaffordable proposal that succeeded only in taking some of the heat off the government. In September 2005 Doyle conceded the policy was impractical and instead offered to subsidise half the cost of private vehicle tolls for the first five years. A survey of Liberal MPs conducted by the Herald-Sun found only four were willing to declare strong support for the policy; one told The Age the move was "disgraceful", and that the party would lose the next election. The decision was also opposed by the Nationals on the grounds that country taxpayers should not be subsidising city drivers. Days after Robert Doyle stood down as leader in May, his replacement Ted Baillieu accepted that full tolls would have to be imposed and announced the money would instead be spent on other road projects in Melbourne's east and south-east.

The EastLink project feeds into other traffic problems specific to Mitcham, namely a series of level crossings on the Ringwood rail line and the dangerous intersection of Springvale Road and Whitehorse Road in Nunawading. According to Simon Mann of The Age, locals worry these problems will be exacerbated by drivers seeking to avoid tolls and anticipated bottlenecks nearer the city. Work is currently under way on a rail underpass at Middleborough Road, while the Liberals have committed to something similar at Springvale Road and Blackburn Road. Labor's claim the Liberals have dramatically underestimated the cost of these projects received some support from the RACV.

Also troubling locals is a commercial-residential development in Mitcham consisting of two towers of 17 and 10 storeys, which will proceed after the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal overturned a Whitehorse council decision to deny it planning approval. The opposition used the case to launch its planning policy in April, which will overturn the government's Melbourne 2030 blueprint.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain