THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

HAWTHORN
Liberal 5.9%

Liberal leader Ted Baillieu's (right) electorate covers the suburb itself, located in Melbourne's inner east, and similarly affluent Camberwell further to the east. Labor's only member in the seat's 117-year history was Charles Murphy, who won the seat in 1952 and ended up on the Anti-Communist Labor side of the 1955 split before losing the seat in that year's election. Senior Kennett government minister Phil Gude retired as member at the 1999 election and was succeeded by Baillieu, an architect and former Liberal Party state president who even then was being spoken of as a future leader. Baillieu was immediately appointed to minor shadow portfolios and promoted to Shadow Planning Minister in September 2001. As a close friend of Jeff Kennett, Baillieu was at the opposite end of the factional divide from his leader Robert Doyle, who was allied with the Costello-Kroger camp. Mounting dissatisfaction with the party's standing under Doyle fuelled growing speculation that Baillieu would oust him, and he was considered the front-runner by the time Doyle announced his resignation on May 4. It briefly appeared that he might be thwarted when his old friend Jeff Kennett floated the possibility of a comeback, which won explicit support from the Prime Minister and equivocal support from Peter Costello. Kennett's change of heart the following day left the way clear for Baillieu, who was elected unopposed following the withdrawal of Terry Mulder.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain