THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

GIPPSLAND EAST
Independent 11.8% vs Nationals

Gippsland East has had an uninterrupted existence going back to 1889, and currently covers the easternmost tip of Victoria, from Maffra to Mallacoota and north to Omeo and beyond. The seat was held by a range of conservatives from 1889 to 1920 and henceforth by the Country Party in various incarnations, a run which came to end with incumbent David Treasure's surprise defeat in 1999 at the hands of independent candidate Craig Ingram (right), campaigning on the restoration of flows to the Snowy River. Ingram sapped enough votes from the Nationals to cut Treasure's primary vote from 52.9 per cent to 35.9 per cent; his own deficit against the Labor candidate of 27.2 per cent to 24.8 per cent was closed with preferences from other independents, and he then surged to a comfortable 7.7 per cent victory on Labor preferences. That left him one of three independents holding the balance of power, and he lined up with colleagues Susan Davies (since defeated member for the abolished Gippsland West) and Russell Savage (member for Mildura) in supporting a Labor minority government, having concluded it was better placed to return flows to the Snowy. In 2002, Ingram increased his primary vote to 42.1 per cent and his two-party margin over the Nationals to 13.1 per cent. This time the Nationals have nominated Chris Nixon, Orbost farmer and son of Fraser government minister Peter Nixon.

ASSESSMENT: Independent retain