THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

GEMBROOK
Labor 1.6%

Gembrook is an oddly shaped electorate that extends from Berwick in Melbourne's outer east deep into rural territory 80 kilometres to the north-east, through Gembrook to Warburton and the Yarra Valley. There is a wide variation of booth results that follows no obvious pattern; the outer suburbs in the south range from safe Liberal Berwick and Beaconsfield to Labor-voting Belgrave, while the area beyond mixes conservative rural booths with the normally marginal satellite towns of Warburston and Cockatoo. The electorate was created at the 2002 election as a result of the abolition of two seats in the area: Pakenham, which had been held by Kennett government minister Rob Maclellan throughout its 10-year existence, and Berwick, also held by the Liberals from its creation in 1976. The Liberals originally intended that the new seat would be contested by Robert Dean, Shadow Treasurer and member for Berwick. This came spectacularly unstuck 16 days out from polling day when the Victorian Electoral Commission announced that Dean had been removed from the electoral roll because he no longer lived at his registered address within the electorate, which it determined after mail sent to the address was repeatedly returned. The rolls having closed, and the Victorian constitution requiring that members of parliament be enrolled to vote, Dean found himself ineligible to stand. This no doubt contributed to the 8.9 per cent swing that erased the notional 7.0 per cent Liberal margin and put Labor's Tammy Lobato (left) into parliament at the expense of last-minute Liberal substitute Neil Lucas, previously the member for the upper house province of Eumemmering.

Like most surprise winners from 2002, Lobato has kept a somewhat low profile in her debut term. However, she made the news in June after coming down with what doctors feared were symptoms of legionnaries' disease, prompting testing of the cooling towers at Parliament House. Labor sources say Lobato was a member of the Socialist Left at the time of her surprise election victory, but was subsequently recruited by Labor Unity. Her Liberal opponent is Simon Wildes (right), an accountant from Kallista. Other preselection nominees included Ken Aldred, who was the federal member for Henty (since abolished) from 1975 to 1980, Bruce from 1983 to 1990 and Deakin from 1990 to 1996.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN