THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

GEELONG
Labor 8.1%

The electorate of Geelong has had an uninterrupted existence going back to 1877, except for the period between 1976 and 1985 when it was broken into Geelong West and Geelong North (the latter of which survived independently until 2002, when it was replaced by Lara). It currently covers the central part of Geelong as far north as the rail junction at Geelong North, and south to the Barwon River and Geelong South. Labor polls particularly well in the latter area, while the Liberals continued to win booths west of the town centre even against the 2002 landslide. The seat was in Liberal hands from 1955 until its abolition 21 years later, at which point Liberal member Hayden Birrell became member for Geelong West. When Birrell retired in 1982 his seat was won for Labor by Hayden Shell, who became member for Geelong when it was re-created in 1985. Shell was narrowly defeated in 1992 by Liberal candidate Ann Henderson, who increased her margin in 1996 and lost by just 16 votes in 1999, a result with momentous consequences for the fate of the Kennett government. Labor's Ian Trezise (right) inevitably boosted his margin in 2002, picking up an 8.7 per cent two-party swing and 51.0 per cent of the primary vote.

As well as being a former Port of Geelong shipping manager and one-time councillor, Ian Trezise is the son of Neil "Nipper" Trezise, recently deceased Geelong Football Club legend and local MP (for Geelong West and Geelong North) from 1964 to 1992. Trezise the younger is variously described as "Left-leaning" and "unaligned", putting him outside the locally dominant Labor Unity/Right faction, which recently asserted itself through Richard Marles' preselection coup against Gavan O'Connor in the federal seat of Corio and John Eren's win over Peter Loney in Lara. In October 2005 Liberal Western province MLC John Vogels claimed in parliament that Geelong province MLC Elaine Carbines was told to try her luck against Trezise if she wasn't happy with third place on the Western Victoria upper house ticket, which she had no reason to be. However, Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reported that "many in the party, including the Right, consider him too well ensconced to knock off".

Liberal candidate Scott Dixon (left) has an interesting background, having lost the South Australian seat of Gordon (now called Mount Gambier) to independent Rory McEwen at the 1997 state election. Described at the time as a self-employed saw miller, Dixon has worked as a sales representative since moving to Geelong in 2002. The aforementioned Jeff Whalley reports there were two other candidates for Liberal preselection: "Grovedale finance manager Michael Alexander" and "Newcomb client service manager Bruce King".

Locals were angered in July when the government made its long-delayed decision on where the Geelong ring road bypass would end: at a set of traffic lights at Waurn Ponds (in the neighbouring electorate of South Barwon, which would handle 30,000 vehicles a day. The government responded to the subsequent uproar (which included criticism from the Prime Minister) by promising to spend $3 million on planning a fourth stage to handle the anticipated congestion. The Liberals claim this would ultimately lead to a massive clost blowout, and have promised to investigate alternative options further to the west. The Herald-Sun's Ashley Gardiner and Michael Warner further reported that "the pork barrel has been rolled out to counter the backlash", with a plan to move the Transport Accident Commission headquarters from Melbourne to the corner of Broughan and Clare streets. This might be good news for Geelong, but TAC staff are less than pleased: according to the Herald-Sun, "about 80 per cent of staff at the TAC's city headquarters in Exhibition St have said they would rather quit than move to Geelong".

In other local news, Labor MPs including Ian Trezise have been at odds with Planning Minister Rob Hulls over Westfield's plans to build a sky bridge linking two separate sections of its Bay City Shopping Centre on Yarra Street. Planning approval from Geelong City Council was upheld by the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal in June following an appeal by locals concerned over its impact on Corio Bay views. Hulls gave the project qualified support, opposing only a proposed car park linking the two sections – a concern which did not win backing from VCAT. The government retains the power to scrap the proposal, but has deferred making a decision until after the election.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain