THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

CARRUM
Labor 12.2%

Carrum covers eastern bayside suburbs from Aspendale to Seaford, about 30 kilometres south-east of the CBD. The seat was held by Labor from its creation in 1976 until its demoralising defeat when the Kennett government was returned at the 1996 election, when a 2.0 per cent swing proved enough to erase the narrow margin Kirner government Police Minister Mal Sandon retained after the 1992 landslide. A gentle 1.3 per cent nudge the other way returned it to the Labor fold in 1999, which was predictably consolidated by a further 10.9 per cent swing in 2002. The member in this period has been Jenny Lindell (left), a former electorate officer to Sandon and Senator Jacinta Collins with factional links to the Right. Liberal candidate Jeff Shelley (right) runs a local contract cleaning business, and was the party's candidate for Isaacs at the 2004 federal election.

Contrary to the media's "Mitcham to Frankston Freeway" designation, the southern terminus of the EastLink project is in fact at Carrum Downs, and it accordingly looms as the major local issue of the campaign. The Bracks government's single most contentious action in its second term was its April 2003 decision to fund the road by imposing tolls, going against its promise at the 2002 election. Then-Opposition Leader Robert Doyle sought to capitalise on the resulting outrage with his October 2004 promise to buy back the contract and make the road a freeway, an obviously unaffordable proposal that succeeded only in taking some of the heat off the government. In September 2005 Doyle conceded the policy was impractical and instead offered to subsidise half the cost of private vehicle tolls for the first five years. A survey of Liberal MPs conducted by the Herald-Sun found only four were willing to declare strong support for the policy; one told The Age the move was "disgraceful", and that the party would lose the next election. The decision was also opposed by the Nationals on the grounds that country taxpayers should not be subsidising city drivers. Days after Robert Doyle stood down as leader in May, his replacement Ted Baillieu accepted that full tolls would have to be imposed and announced the money would instead be spent oand other road projects in Melbourne's east and south-east.

Other road issues of local importance are the proposed Mornington Peninsula Freeway extension and Dingley bypass, which had been the subject of a $30 million Labor promise at the 1999 election. This was withdrawn on the grounds that reduced traffic flows from EastLink would render it unnecessary.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain