THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

BURWOOD
Labor 5.1%

Burwood is located about 15 kilometres east of the CBD, from the South Eastern Freeway north to Box Hill. Labor's vote is markedly higher at the freeway end of the electorate, in Alamein and Chadstone, than in Glen Iris and Burwood to the north, where the Liberals continued to hold some booths against the tide of the 2002 election result. The seat had formerly been held safely for the Liberals from its creation in 1955 (the name changed to Glen Iris between 1967 and 1976), by Jeff Kennett from his entry into parliament in 1976 until his retirement after the 1999 election defeat. The subsequent by-election, which was preceded by a surprise Liberal preselection win for Lara McLean over future state party president Helen Kroger, saw a 15.0 per cent collapse in the Liberal primary vote and a 10.5 per cent swing to Labor. This translated into a 3.7 per cent victory for Labor candidate Bob Stensholt (left), Monash University politics lecturer and member of the Labor Unity ("Right") faction. Other candidates included Crikey's Stephen Mayne, who polled 6.7 per cent as an independent. At the time, most expected that this aberration would be corrected at the subsequent election, but such was the disaster the Liberals suffered in November 2002 that Stensholt added a further 1.8 per cent to his margin. The Liberals originally nominated former anti-corruption detective Simon Illingworth, but he withdrew in June last year citing family reasons. The subsequent preselection was won by Royal Melbourne Hospital executive Graham Bailey (right), ahead of a field of five rivals that included Tony Abbott adviser Terry Barnes.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain