THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

BASS
Liberal 0.6%

Bass covers the eastern coastline of Westernport Bay, from Koo Wee Rup to Phillip Island, and extends inland to take in Pakenham in the north and Wonthaggi in the south. It was created at the 2002 election out of territory from the abolished electorates of Gippsland West and Pakenham. Gippsland West gave the Kennett government an early foretaste of its ultimate fate when it was narrowly lost at a February 1997 by-election, held after one-time Liberal leader Alan Brown was appointed agent-general to London. The winner was independent candidate Susan Davies, who had been Labor's candidate at the election the previous March. Davies was carried to victory by a heavy flow of preferences from a large field of independents (Labor did not field a candidate), most of whom had the Liberals last on their how-to-vote cards. Her re-election by a 4.0 per cent margin in 1999 left Davies as one of three independents holding the balance of power, and few were surprised that she joined her cross-bench colleagues in supporting Labor.

The subsequent redistribution was not kind to Davies, and she finished third behind Labor in her attempt to win the new seat with 22.2 per cent of the vote. Her preferences were almost enough to close Labor's deficit of 28.2 per cent 40.2 per cent on the primary vote, but they ultimately fell 410 votes short of the Liberals' Ken Smith (right), who had previously been member for the South Eastern upper house province since 1988. Poll Bludger commenter Geoff Robinson notes that "the Council voting suggests Labor would have won it if they had not run dead to assist Davis". A postscript to the election emerged the following June as part of the scandal surrounding access to candidates' police files. A freedom of information request revealed that four police officers checked the file of Kay Nesbit, a former sex worker who had suffered disfiguring facial injuries from a shotgun blast, who was standing as an independent and directing preferences to the Liberals. This occurred at around the time Nesbit announced her intention to run.

With the election result having knocked off much of the competition, Smith was given the first minor portfolio responsibilities of his career in the past term, namely gaming and fisheries. There was talk that he would fall victim to a purge of older Liberal members, but he has again won preselection at 61. Labor has aga