THE POLL BLUDGER
Victorian Legislative Assembly Election 2006

BALLARAT EAST
Labor 7.6%

Ballarat East extends from the eastern outskirts of Ballarat for about 50 kilometres north-east to Kyneton and 25 kilometres south to Meredith. At the 2002 election, Labor won 60-40 majorities in the Ballarat booths and in smaller towns like Kyneton and Daylesford (respectively accounting for around a third and a half of the electorate's voters) while the smaller rural booths turned in a wide variety of results that cumulatively favoured the Liberals. The electorate was created in its modern form in 1992, when it was narrowly won for the Liberals by Barry Traynor. Traynor held on in 1996 but was dumped by the rural backlash in 1999, when former school teacher and Ballarat mayor Geoff Howard (left) won a decisive 4.7 per cent swing. Howard, who is said to be aligned with the Independents faction dominated by Deputy Premier John Thwaites, inevitably added further padding to his margin at the 2002 election; however, the 4.2 per cent swing was among the smallest in the state. His opponent this time is Geoff Hayes (right), an engineer, Ballarat councillor and former mayor of Boroondara. Other candidates include Labor-turned-independent Ballarat province MLC Dianne Hadden, who quit the party in April 2005 on the grounds that it was "city-centric". Hadden was specifically aggrieved by plans to locate a toxic waste dump in the Mallee region, at the outer edge of her upper house province of Ballarat. Shortly after quitting the party, Hadden accused Howard supporters of painting the word "rat" on her office window. Equally intriguing was the announcement by Howard's ex-wife Alison Smith that she too intended to run, but she knocked the idea on the head in September.

On October 16, the government unveiled the $260 million "Goldfields Superpipe" proposal to pump 38 gigalitres from the Goulburn River to Bendigo and Ballarat, which have been hit by severe restrictions during the current dry spell. Liberal water spokesman Denis Napthine slammed the inclusion of Ballarat in the project, declaring: "People in the Goulburn Valley and the Goulburn irrigation system are absolutely ropeable about the Bracks government moving into their irrigation district and stealing their water for Ballarat".

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain