The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

BRADDON
Region: Western Tasmania

The electorate of Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania plus King Island in the Bass Strait, and is dominated by Burnie and Devonport. Smaller centres include Currie, Penguin, Savage River, Smithton, Stanley, Ulverstone, Waratah and Wynyard. The redistribution has resulted in transfers of territory with Lyons: it now covers the entire length of the west coast after taking over West Coast Council (which includes Strahan, situated Queenstown, Zeehan, Tullah and Rosebery), while in the north-east of the electorate it loses those parts of Latrobe Council outside the township of Latrobe itself. Both changes account for slightly over 3000 voters. By Antony Green's reckoning, this has increased the Labor margin by 1.1 per cent in federal terms.

The area covered by Braddon is electorally mixed, with timber and mining industries that traditionally provided a solid working-class base for Labor balanced by conservative small towns and farming districts. Antony Green noted that the electorate's diversity encourages parties to balance their tickets with candidates from different areas, with Steve Kons and Bryan Green pulling in most of Labor's vote in Burnie and areas to the west while Brenton Best and unsuccessful newcomer Peter Hollister dominated in Devonport. With the departure of Kons, Labor has again sought a ticket balancing Burnie and Devonport interests. Similarly, the Liberal vote at the past two elections has recorded stronger support for Sassafras-based Jeremy Rockliff in the east and Burnie-based Brett Whitely in the east.

The economic decline that buffeted the area's industries, along with the political upheaval caused by the Franklin Dam controversy, dramatically tilted the balance in the Liberals' favour in the 1980s and early 1990s. However, recent years have seen a return to the good old days from Labor's perspective, barring the 2004 federal election when a backlash against Mark Latham's conservationist forestry policy returned the seat to the Liberals with a 7.0 per cent swing. As this result indicates, this is a relatively weak area for the Greens who have uniquely failed to win seats in the two elections held since the number of members in each electorate was cut from seven to five. Liberal hopes that the 2004 election result foreshadowed electoral gains at the 2006 state election were not realised, with each election producing a status quo result. Labor also recovered the seat at the 2007 federal election, even though the swing was a fairly gentle 2.6 per cent.

Braddon was the only electorate in which the Greens did not win a seat in both 2002 and 2006, a 2.0 per cent drop in their vote putting leading candidate Paul O'Halloran well out of contention on the latter occasion. Tasmanian psephologist Kevin Bonham noted the Greens could conceivably have won a seat with the 10.3 per cent if only Labor had failed to elect a third member, and recorded a surplus over the second quota which was lower than the Greens vote: in other words, if their vote had been below 44 per cent, and not the 50.8 per cent they actually recorded. As such, a slump in the Labor vote could put O'Halloran in contention on his second run even if the Greens vote remains stagnant. The risk would be if the combined Labor and Greens vote falls below 50 per cent, which would raise the prospect of the Liberals winning a third seat at the expense of Labor and the Greens again being frozen out. That would require the Liberal vote to approach 50 per cent, a tall order considering they polled 37.3 per cent last time.

Four of the five sitting members for Braddon are seeking re-election, the exception being Steve Kons, who was first elected in 1998. Kons served as a minister from 2004 and became Deputy Premier and Attorney-General after the 2006 election. He resigned from cabinet two years later after misleading parliament over a magistrate's appointment, a key event leading to Paul Lennon's demise as Premier shortly after. According to Sue Neales of The Mercury, the emergence of David Bartlett as leader left Kons with little chance of returning to cabinet. Danielle McKay of the Sunday Tasmanian wrote of “speculation he was disendorsed by the Labor caucus” when he announced his plans to retire in July 2009, although Kons denied this.


	BRENTON BEST
	SHANE BROAD
	KAY EASTLEY
	BRYAN GREEN
	JUDY RICHMOND

Bryan Green is a member of Labor's Left faction with a background in the Forestry Union, and was reckoned by former Greens leader Peg Putt to be a “dyed-in-the-wool” advocate for the industry. Green was at the centre of one of the government's most problematic episodes in the past term, following an inquiry by the auditor-general into a deal that offered a monopoly over accreditation in the building industry to the Tasmanian Compliance Corporation, part-owned by former Labor ministers John White and Glen Milliner (who had served in the Goss government in Queensland from 1989 to 1996). The then Premier, Paul Lennon, demanded his resignation from cabinet and as Deputy Premier while the Director of Public Prosecutions determined whether Green had broken the law for attempting to interfere with an executive officer, which carries a jail term of up to 21 years. Both trials ended in hung juries, after which the charge was dropped. Green was first elected in 1998 and achieved a personal victory when he became the electorate's strongest performing candidate in 2002. He was mentioned as a potential rival to Paul Lennon when talk of a leadership challenge briefly surfaced after the 2004 federal election debacle. In 2006 he increased his vote still further, from 17.0 per cent to 24.4 per cent. He became Deputy Premier when David Llewellyn stepped aside immediately after the election, also exchanging his existing portfolios for economic development, resources and sport and recreation, but lasted only four months in the position.

Brenton Best of the Left faction was first elected at the 1996 election with 4.4 per cent of the vote, which increased to 7.3 per cent in 1998 and 10.6 per cent. Labor's overall strength in 2002 meant he only won narrowly over a party colleague, Latrobe deputy mayor Michael Gaffney, but he was untroubled in 2006 despite his vote easing slightly to 10.5 per cent, the lowest of the three Labor incumbents. He may have suffered from discontent over the removal of accident and emergency and obstetric services from Mersey Hospital, located at his end of the electorate in Devonport. Best has remained at all times on the back bench, currently claiming the title of deputy chairman of committees.

Labor's newcomer candidates include Shane Broad, a farmer and champion rower from Burnie, and Judy Richmond, a nurse at Mersey Hospital near Devonport. Yolla High School principal Stephanie Templeton was originally endorsed in July 2009, but she withdrew in November citing personal reasons. She was replaced by Kay Eastley, a Burnie resident who is vague about her professional background.


	JEREMY ROCKLIFF
	BRETT WHITELEY
	PHILIP LAMONT
	GRANT DUNHAM
	ADAM BROOKS
	LEONIE HISCUTT
	COLIN LAMONT

The Liberals turned over their members in 2002 when Carole Cains and former Premier Tony Rundle retired. Despite a 9.2 per cent dive in the primary vote on that occasion, they were able to maintain their two-seat representation. The star performer was 32-year-old Jeremy Rockliff, whose family have been farmers in the Sassafras area for 150 years. Rockliff is a former state Young Liberals president and factional moderate. His 13.1 per cent of the vote in 2002 and 14.8 per cent in 2006 made him comfortably the strongest performing Liberal candidate on both occasions. During his first term he held the shadow primary industries, water and environment and arts portfolios. After the 2006 election he assumed the deputy leadership that had been vacated by the elevation of Will Hodgman, defeating Brett Whitely and Bass MP Peter Gutwein in a party room vote.

The other Liberal member since 2002 has been Brett Whiteley, who had previously been a Burnie councillor and state party vice-president. Whitely polled 7.4 per cent in 2002 and 10.1 per cent in 2006. After the 2002 campaign a charge was laid against him under Electoral Act relating to how-to-vote cards that listed and pictured the party candidates in his own order of preference. Defeated Liberal leader Bob Cheek later wrote that he had “never seen four men so angry” as when he discussed the matter with the other Liberal candidates, each of whom considered taking it to the Court of Disputed Returns (which was considered unlikely to succeed). Whiteley pleaded guilty and was placed on a 12 month good-behaviour bond by the court and fined $5000 by the Liberal Party, whose Devonport branch called for his expulsion. He was nonetheless promoted from Shadow Infrastructure Minister to Shadow Police Minister in June 2003, with Ellen Whinnett of The Mercury writing he had won forgiveness due to strong performances in parliament. He was further promoted to Shadow Treasurer in December 2003, movint to health and human services in December 2006. There were suggestions in January 2008 he was considering challenging Will Hodgman for the leadership or Jeremy Rockliff for the deputy position.

The newcomer Liberal candidates are Philip Lamont, a vascular surgeon at Mersey Hospital; Grant Dunham, manager of Burnie electrical company Hivotech Innovation and Design; Adam Brooks, whose business interests are said by The Advertiser to include “Total Performance Sports and recently opened Essentially Mobile in Devonport plus Xcel Fitness in Shearwater as well as Port Sorell take away”; Leonie Hiscutt, a marriage celebrant from Howth; and Colin Lamont, described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a “ former Tasmanian Indigenous Team member and local cricket identity”. Brooks was in the news in early February after the Hawthorn Football Club withdrew its support from a community event he had organised (“Brooksy's Walk for a Healthier Braddon”), reportedly because David Bartlett's chief-of-staff had contacted club president Jeff Kennett complaining it was a barely concealed party political promotion.

The Greens have again anointed as their lead candidate Paul O'Halloran, assistant principal at the Tasmanian Academy Don campus. O'Halloran was the strongest performing Greens candidate at the 2006 election. The remaining Greens candidates are David Henderson, Melissa Houghton, Ted Field and Claire Gilmour.