SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

The electoral system for the South Australian Legislative Council is very similar to that for the Senate. Voters have the option of numbering one party above the line or every candidate below. Members serve staggered terms, which in the South Australian context means terms of eight rather than six years. With 22 members in the chamber, 11 members are elected at each election, which produces a quota for election of 8.33 per cent: closer to the 7.69 per cent quota for the election of 12 members at a double dissolution election than the 14.29 per cent familiar for the election of six Senators at a half-Senate election. The only significant differences between the Legislative Council and Senate systems involve independent candidates: each gets their own column with an above-the-line option, whereas in the Senate individual independent candidates appear in an “ungrouped” column, and candidates are allowed five words on the ballot paper with which to brand themselves.

Since 1979, the only occasion on which a major party won more than half the seats was with the Liberals' 1993 landslide, when they won six seats to Labor's four and the Democrats' one. This gave the Brown/Olsen government half the numbers in the chamber in its first term, but they returned to earth by winning only four seats in 1997. Labor failed to reap the dividends of its 2006 landslide due to the extrordinary performance of Nick Xenophon's “No Pokies” ticket, which polled 20.5 per cent (2.46 quotas) and easily elected both Xenophon and his running mate Ann Bressington, and only fell just short of winning a seat for the third candidate on his ticket, John Darley. That left Labor with four and the Liberals with three – the worst result for a major party since 1975, when the Liberal/Liberal Movement split was in play. This left the two parties evenly matched in the chamber on eight seats each, as the Liberals won five seats to Labor's four in a finely balanced result in 2002.

The minor party and independent situation in the chamber has been idiosyncratic since the 1997 election, when Nick Xenophon entered the parliament. Family First first came on to the political scene when Andrew Evans won a seat in 2002, having harnessed the organisational power of the Assemblies of God church. He was joined after the 2006 election by Dennis Hood. The Greens by contrast only have one member, having been unsuccessful in winning a seat until the final eclipse of the Australian Democrats in 2006, when Mark Parnell was elected. That left the Democrats with only their ongoing member from 2002, Sandra Kanck. Kanck retired in February 2009 and was replaced by David Winderlich, who parted company with the Australian Democrats later in the year and will now attempt to retain his seat as an indpendent. Nick Xenophon's departure for the Senate in mid-2008 led to his replacement by John Darley, who had been the third No Pokies candidate in 2006. Xenophon and Bressington's professional relationship broke down in the week before the 2007 federal election.

With four cross-bench members carrying over from the 2006 election, there is not the slightest prospect of either major party securing a majority or anything like it. Unless an independent or minor candidate can pull off a surprise, the easiest way of viewing the contest is in left-right terms, with Labor and the Greens on one side of the ledger and Liberal and Family First on the other, with either coalition capable of winning five or six seats. The Greens seem assured of winning a seat, and are hopeful of winning two. Family First's fortunes seem to have declined, but they have been underrated in opinion polls before. As in Senate elections, a lot depends on the preference tickets that will determine the destination of that overwhelming majority of votes which are cast above the line. As ever, the tickets can be best viewed at ABC Elections, where Antony Green has a tremendously useful Legislative Council calculator where you can see how many seats are likely to result from whichever vote shares you put in.

Current polling suggests the contest can best be viewed in left-right terms, with either side a chance of winning five or six seats. The Liberals are assured of improving on the 2006 debacle with at least four seats and possibly five. Family First will draw preferences from many sources on the right and is a particularly good chance if there are six right seats, although it will struggle if the party's vote falls below about 4 per cent. Labor is likely to win four seats, but three is not out of the question if things go particularly badly for them. The Greens seem assured of one of the five or six left seats, and can hope for a second particularly if the left-right split is six-five. David Winderlich will draw preferences from left and right sources and thus stands a vague chance of re-election at the expense of a second Green. However, he will need a base vote of at least 2.5 per cent, which won't be easy. In any case, the government will face a problematic upper house after the election as four cross-bench members are carrying over from the last election. Should the Liberals gain power, they might well do so with only seven seats in the upper house, perhaps needing five votes out of two Greens, two Family First and two independents to pass legislation opposed by Labor. Labor won one more seat than the Liberals in 2006, and would thus emerge slightly better placed.

Paul Holloway first entered parliament as member for the lower house seat of Mitchell in 1989, but was swept away in the 1993 landslide. He returned to parliament by filling a casual vacancy in the upper house two years later. After the election of the Rann government he entered cabinet, variously serving in the mineral resources development, agriculture, Attorney-General and police portfolios. In July 2008 he was moved from police to small business. There were reports in 2009 he was under pressure from his Right faction to make way for new blood, but he evidently held firm. Gail Gago is a former state secretary of the Australian Nursing Federation and member of the Left faction. She unsuccessfully contested the federal seat of Makin in 2007, having contentiously won preselection ahead of Salisbury mayor Tony Zappia who would go on to win the seat in 2007. Gago was elevated to cabinet after the 2006 election in the environment and mental health portfolios, which she exchanged for consumer affairs, government enterprises state-local government relations and status of women in 2008. Bernard Finnigan entered parliament after the death of Terry Roberts in February 2006, having previously been assistant secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. John Gazzola was elected from fourth place on the ticket in 2002, having previously been state secretary of the Left faction Australian Services Union. He has been on the back bench throughout his eight years in parliament, and has generally kept a low profile. Tung Ngo is a Port Adelaide-Enfield councillor who emigrated to Australia from Vietnam in 1983 at the age of 11.

David Ridgway entered parliament from fourth place on the Liberal ticket at the 2002 election. Prior to entering parliament he was a horticulturalist based in Bordertown. He made the front bench after the 2006 election in the environment and conservation, River Murray and urban development and planning portfolios. When Martin Hamilton-Smith deposed Iain Evans in April 2007, he replaced Rob Lucas as Liberal leader in the upper house, Lucas having chosen to stand aside after being excluded from Hamilton-Smith's shadow cabinet. Ridgway also exchanged his environment and conservation and River Murray portfolios for police and mineral resources development. Stephen Wade was a chief-of-staff to Olsen government minister Michael Armitage and later state party vice-president. A factional moderate, he had the fifth place on the Liberal upper house ticket in 2006, which he surprisingly gained at the expense of state party president and former Henley Beach MP Bob Randall despite support for the latter from Right powerbroker Nick Minchin. Although unsuccessful at the election, he found a place soon afterwards in the seat Angus Redford vacated for his unsuccessful pitch at the lower house seat of Bright. According to Wikipedia, Wade won the preselection ahead of the Right-backed Tim Keynes and defeated Hartley MP Joe Scalzi 112-84-32 on the first round and 134-96 on the second. In April 2007 he was one of seven MPs who signed a letter calling for a leadership spill against Iain Evans, and was subsequently promoted to the front bench by Martin Hamilton-Smith. He has held various portfolios since, assuming housing, families and communities when Isobel Redmond became leader in July 2009. Terry Stephens was elected from fifth place on the ticket in 2002, and served in shadow parliamentary secretary positions after the 2006 election and as Shadow Tourism and Sport Minister after Isobel Redmond assumed the leadership. He has maintained a safe position on the ticket despite moves to demote him at the expense of women candidates who ended up having to settle for fourth and fifth place: Jing Lee, a property strategist of Chinese background described by an approving Alexander Downer as “non-factional”, and Rita Bouras, a former solicitor and business manager who contested the Labor-held federal seat of Hindmarsh in 2007. Rounding out the ticket are barrister Peter Salu and health manager Sarah Jared. Two sitting Liberals, Robert Lawson and Caroline Schaefer, are bowing out.

Parliamentary representation for the Greens in South Australia is a recent phenomenon. Sarah Hanson-Young became the state branch's first Senator after the 2007 federal election, achieved in part by the dampening effect Nick Xenophon had on the Labor vote, which enabled her to overtake their third candidate. Mark Parnell became their first member of the Legislative Council after the 2006 election, when the party polled what by national standards was a still modest 4.3 per cent, much of the minor party oxygen having been sucked up by Nick Xenophon. In 2002 they managed just 2.7 per cent, well behind the Australian Democrats' 7.2 per cent. Spared competition from Xenophon, and with the Democrats a spent force, there is no question their vote will be much higher this time, and are considered a certainty to win at least one seat. Their lead candidate is Tammy Jennings, who works for the Mental Health Coalition of SA and is a former party state convenor and current membership secretary. A second seat would require a high primary vote and a fortuitous order of candidate exclusions, but is by no means impossible. Success would mean a seat for Simon Jones, who “has a background in small business, creating and running businesses ranging from soft furnishing to landscaping and web translation and his connections to green politics go back to the No Dams protests of 1983”.

Other candidates: Robert Brokenshire replaced Andrew Evans as a Family First member following the latter's retirement in July 2008. He was previously the Liberal member for Mawson from 1993 to 2007, and served as Police and Emergency Services Minister in the Olsen and Kerin governments. Despite his defeat in 2007, he achieved an impressive electoral record as member for Mawson, recording the state's smallest anti-Liberal swing in 1997 and well below average swing in 2007. Prior to entering parliament he was a dairy farmer and real estate partner. David Winderlich was chosen by the Australian Democrats in November 2008 to replace the controversial Sandra Kanck, whose term began in 2002 and was thus due to expire at this election. Winderlich quit the Democrats in October 2009 to sit as an independent, bringing to an end the party's 32 years of representation in Australian parliaments. While the odds for re-election are stacked against him, he could at least be in the hunt if he can manage over 2.5 per cent of the vote, having done well on minor and micro party preferences. The Democrats' ticket is led by Jeanie Walker, an Aboriginal youth support worker and anti-rodeo campaigner. The second candidate for Dignity for Disability, Kelly Vincent, received favourable publicity in unfortunate circumstances in the second last week of the campaign after the lead candidate, Paul Collier, died after suffering a brain haemhorrhage. As Collier's death came after the closure of nominations his name will remain on the ballot paper, but his above-the-line votes will pass directly to Vincent. The Nationals candidate is Deb Thiele, a Loxton farmer and grazier who ran in the federal seat of Barker in 2007.

Other than that, a boilover in upper house elections can never be entirely ruled out, so consider lip service paid to (in ballot paper order) Nathan Ashby (Independent Climate Sceptics), Robert Edmonds (One Nation), Ian Wood (Independent Christians for Voluntary Euthanasia), Mark Aldridge (Independent Mark Aldridge Change is Necessary), Lynette Crocker (Independent SA Change), Jim Katsaros (Save RAH Party), Neil Armstrong (Independent SA Fishing and Lifestyle), George Kargiotis (Fair Land Tax - Tax Party), Jenny Wheaton (Independent - Legalise Voluntary Euthanasia), Paul Russell (Democratic Labor Party), Stewart Glass (Independent Less Tax), Joe Ienco (Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax), Darian Hiles (United Party - Water, Housing, Health Care), John Tregenza (Independent No Desal No Dams), Paul Kuhn (F.R.E.E. Australia Party), Frank Williams (Independent Frank Williams Law and Order), Gary Mighall (Independent Garry Mighall Water Environment Heritage), Chris Prior (Gamers 4 Croydon), Michelle Drummond (Independent Social Environmental and Economic Justice), Kelly Henderson (Independent Kelly Henderson Parklands and Heritage), Joe Carbone (Independent Joe Carbone MAGS 2010), Doug McLaren (Independent for Commission Against Corruption), Michael Hudson (Shooters Party), Trevor Grace (Independent Trevor Grace Save the Unborn), Joseph Williams (Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous), Howard Coombe (Independent Howard Frayne Coombe Ultra Progressive) and Peter Panagaris (Independent Peter Panagaris CARS).