The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

NEWLAND Labor 5.2%
Region: North-Eastern Suburbs Federal divisions: Makin/Sturt/Mayo
	TOM KENYON Labor (top) TRISH DRAPER Liberal (bottom) SUREN KRISHNAN Save RAH DALE CLEGG Family First RYAN HABY Independent JIM ZAVOS Fair Land Tax - Tax Party HOLDEN WARD Greens

Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Newland covers outer north-eastern Adelaide suburbs including Tea Tree Gully, Banksia Park and St Agnes. The area conforms closely with the national average on most major census indicators, excepting those pointing to its low level of ethnic diversity. It has consistently given the Liberals a vote 1 to 5 per cent higher than the South Australian average at state and federal elections over the past two decades. Despite its location on the suburban fringe, this is not a growth area as it abuts the natural metropolitan boundary of the Adelaide Hills. The redistribution has substantially increased the size of the electorate by extending it beyond that boundary, adding the Adelaide Hills townships of Inglewood Park and Cudlee Creek while removing suburban Redwood Park. In common with Bright and Morialta, the changes were partly inspired by a need to reduce the Labor margin (from 6.9 per cent to 5.2 per cent) in line with the requirement for “fair” electoral boundaries.

Newland was created in 1977 and went the way of the winning party in its first four elections, changing from Labor to Liberal in 1979 and back again in 1982. Dorothy Kotz won the seat for the Liberals a term ahead of schedule in 1989, and retained it until her retirement in 2006. It was then won for Labor by Tom Kenyon with a resounding 12.3 per cent two-party swing. Kenyon was previously an adviser to upper house front-bencher Paul Holloway, and is said to have a support base in the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. He has been mentioned as a future candidate for the ministry, but has so far failed to win promotion. In July 2008, Kenyon claimed senior Liberal MPs Michael Pengilly and Vickie Chapman had proposed he switch parties, but Pengilly denied the offer was serious. This prompted renewed examination of an earlier call by Martin Hamilton-Smith for the party to leave preselection nominations open “in case of any surprise candidates putting their hands up”.

With no developments forthcoming on that front, the Liberals contentiously preselected Trish Draper, who had held the federal seat of Makin from 1996 until her retirement in 2007, when the seat fell to Labor. Draper reportedly won 10 of the 33 preselection college votes on the first round, going on to defeat rival candidate Patrick Trainor in the final round 18 votes to 15. According to Liberal sources quoted by Greg Kelton of The Advertiser, most of the eight votes she gained in the later rounds were “from state executive members who were lobbied by senior party leaders to support her”. Draper continues to carry the baggage of an episode in 2004 when she was accompanied at taxpayers' expense by her then boyfriend Derick Sands on a study trip to Europe. The episode made a highly inconvenient return to the news in 2009 when Sands lost a defamation case against Channel Seven and the ABC over reports he had been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation. This was to have been the subject of a Today Tonight report in 2004, which did not go to air due to an injunction obtained by Draper. The judge in the defamation case ruled there had been reasonable grounds on which Sands could have been suspected of the murder, prompting The Advertiser to report the ruling under the front-page headline: “YOU LIAR”. It was reported at the time that Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin was among those pushing for the then Opposition Leader, Martin Hamilton-Smith, to have Draper dumped as candidate.

One of the unsuccessful Liberal preselection candidates, Gully councillor Dale Clegg, is running for Family First.

Late in the second week of the campaign, The Advertiser published a poll of 524 respondents in Newland which showed Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 53-47. Primary votes after distribution of undecided and informal were 43 per cent for Tom Kenyon, 41 per cent for Trish Draper, 5 per cent for Family First and 4 per cent for the Greens. Mike Rann held a slender lead over Isobel Redmond as preferred premier, 45 per cent to 43 per cent. The margin of error on the poll was about 4 per cent.

At the Liberal campaign launch a fortnight before polling day, Isobel Redmond promised $47 million out of a claimed $1 billion in savings from rebuilding the Royal Adelaide Hospital on site would be used to return obstetrics services to Modbury Hospital. Redmond also promised upgrades to the hospital’s paediatrics, intensive care and emergency departments. Labor responded by promising a $44 million upgrade including a new emergency department at the hospital.

PREDICTION: Labor retain