SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

NAPIER Labor 23.9%
Region: Outer Northern Suburbs Federal division: Wakefield
	GARY BALFORT Family First MICHAEL O'BRIEN Labor (top) WAYNE RICH Independent BRENTON CHOMEL Liberal (bottom) LOUISE RODBOURN Greens
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Napier consists of a concentration of suburbs in the city of Elizabeth on Adelaide's northern fringe, from Elizabeth West east to Craigmore, and semi-rural territory further east at Bibaringa, Humbug Scrub and Sampson Flat. The former area, which provides the overwhelming majority of the voters, flourished after the war on the strength of a manufacturing sector which has since all but disappeared, leaving Elizabeth with among the highest unemployment in the country. The redistribution has transferred all of Elizabeth and the electorate's share of Elizabeth East to Little Para in the south, affecting 1506 voters, while adding 940 voters from Light in the north (mostly in suburban Davoren Park, but with a separate transfer at Bibaringa in the north) and 316 in the hills area around Humbug Scrub from Schubert in the east.

Annette Hurley won Napier in 1993 upon the retirement of Terry Hemmings, overcoming an independent challenge from Terry Groom, the former Labor and independent member for Hartley. Groom had quit the party after a preselection defeat but was taken into cabinet as an independent by Premier Lynn Arnold in September 1992, making the election a contest between an endorsed Labor candidate and an Arnold government minister. According to Antony Green, Arnold “noticeably avoided campaigning in Napier” during the 1993 campaign. Hurley was back on easy street at the 1997 election and received a handy promotion to the deputy leadership when the Right's initial nominee, Croydon MP Michael Atkinson, was rebuffed by a rebellion from the Left. In 2002 she boldly abandoned Napier to boost Labor in the neighbouring electorate of Light, a traditional Liberal seat that had been made winnable for the first time after a redistribution. She was unsuccessful, but has since been compensated with a Senate seat.

Napier was passed on to Michael O'Brien, also of the Right faction and said to be a close friend of powerbroker Senator Don Farrell. O'Brien worked before politics as a manager for Elders and an adviser to Hawke/Keating government minister Neal Blewett, and later as a bakery owner. He was made a parliamentary secretary to the Transport Minister in March 2005, and then to the Premier after the 2006 election. After contentiously being overlooked for further promotion in the July 2008 reshuffle, he was elevated to cabinet in March 2009 as Employment, Further Education and Training and Science and Information Economy Minister. He further gained road safety from Tom Koutsantonis after the details of the latter's driving indiscretions were leaked the following month.

PREDICTION: Labor retain