SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

MOUNT GAMBIER Independent 6.2% versus Liberal*
Outgoing member: Rory McEwen (Independent) Region: Rural South-East Federal division: Barker * Liberal 6.1% versus Labor
	NICK FLETCHER Independent DONELLA PETERS Greens STEVE PERRYMAN Liberal (top) VIV MAHER Country Labor (bottom) JOHN DESYLLAS Fair Land Tax - Tax Party DON PEGLER Independent HENK BRUINS Family First
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

The electorate of Mount Gambier contains the city of that name in the south-eastern corner of the state, which includes three-quarters of its voters, plus about 3000 square kilometres of the surrounding area. Between 1993 and 2002 it was called Gordon. The seat was traditionally held by Labor until the 1975 election, at which backwash from the Whitlam government's troubles imperilled the government of the normally popular Don Dunstan. Liberal member Harold Allison then consolidated his hold over his time as member, and the seat long ago ceased to be considered winnable for Labor. When Allison retired at the 1997 election it was generally expected that the Liberal nomination would go to Grant District Council chairman Rory McEwen, described by The Advertiser as an “experienced political operative”. His experience did not save him from a surprise defeat at the hands of Scott Dixon, a self-employed Mount Gambier sawmiller. McEwen ran as an independent and won the narrowest of victories, finishing a few votes ahead of Labor to take second place and then squeaking ahead of Dixon on Labor preferences. That left him among three members holding the balance of power in John Olsen's post-election minority government, which he formally pledged to support on matters of confidence and supply.

McEwen continued to hold a balance of power position after another indecisive election in 2002, but this was made redundant by Hammond MP Peter Lewis's backing of Labor. The following November McEwen became the next of the independents to be drawn into the government's orbit when he accepted a specially created fourteenth cabinet post, becoming Minister for Local Government, Forests, Industry, Trade and Regional Development and Small Business. The deal included a promise that McEwen would retain a cabinet position after the next election, to the consternation of ambitious Labor members. McEwen faced a well-oiled Liberal campaign in 2006 believed to have been backed by the late Allan Scott, trucking magnate and publisher of the Border Watch newspaper (whose editor was stood down during the campaign after running articles critical of the Liberal Party and its candidate). Antony Green further noted the CFMEU was devoting considerable energy to the Labor campaign, presumably in the hope that the Labor candidate might squeeze out McEwen and allow the Liberals to win, thus freeing up his position in cabinet. McEwen nonetheless managed to poll higher than both candidates, despite dropping to 35.6 per cent from 58.4 per cent in 2002, and finished 6.1 per cent ahead of the Liberals after preferences.

The Liberals have nominated Mount Gambier mayor Steve Perryman, who had not previously been a member of the party and had endorsed McEwen in 2006. Writing in The Advertiser after the May 2008 preselection vote, Liberal insider Chris Kenny wrote that Perryman's last minute entry in the preselection race had “put the fear of God into local Liberals about a possible repeat of the McEwen debacle. If they didn't choose Mr Perryman, would he quit and then run as a high-profile independent?” The local branches reportedly continued to lean to their candidate from 2006, Peter Gandolfi, a former staffer to Dean Brown, John Olsen and Mal Brough. However, the 11 state executive members who made the journey to Mount Gambier for the preselection vote proved decisive, with Perryman defeating Gandolfi by six votes. Gandolfi and another preselection contestant, Grant District Council mayor Don Pegler, both report being approached to run for the Nationals or as independents. Allan Scott foreshadowed that he might throw his weight behind an independent this time, but he died later in the year at the age of 85.

A strong echo of the 2006 campaign emerged in Mount Gambier when Michael Gorey (an occasional Poll Bludger comments contributor) resigned as editor of the Border Watch newspaper, and journalist Sandra Morello was banned from covering the election campaign. Renato Castello of the Sunday Mail reported the latter event was occasioned when “the Liberal Party complained her husband and former Border Watch editor Frank Morello was writing media releases for Don Pegler”, with three such releases said to have formed the basis for Morello's stories (a common enough practice at hard-pressed suburban and regional newspapers, as I can state from personal experience). However, Gorey gave notice six weeks earlier, so the two events are presumably not related. Pegler denied suggestions his campaign was being bankrolled by the paper's publisher, the Scott Group, which was owned by recently deceased trucking magnate Allan Scott. Frank Morello was himself stood down by Allan Scott during the 2006 campaign after the paper ran a number of articles seen to be critical of Liberal candidate Peter Gandolfi, whose well-financed campaign was believed to have been financed by Scott. This prompted the sudden resignation of Lechelle Earl, the writer of the articles and the paper's chief-of-staff. When Gandolfi was defeated for preselection ahead of the current election by Steve Perryman, Scott wrote to the then Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith threatening to back “any independent who might contest the seat”, according to Greg Kelton of The Advertiser.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL GAIN