SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

MacKILLOP Liberal 21.7%
Region: Rural South-East Federal division: Barker
	JENENE CHILDS Family First MITCH WILLIAMS Liberal (top) ANDREW JENNINGS Greens SIMONE McDONNELL Labor (bottom) DARREN O'HALLORAN Independent
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

MacKillop covers the south-eastern corner of the state against the border of Victoria (extending about 200 kilometres from north to south), excluding the coastal area which constitutes Mount Gambier. Major population centres include the Dukes Highway towns of Bordertown, Keith and Coonalpyn, along with Millicent, Lucindale and Naracoorte further south. The electorate has not been affected by the redistribution. Liberal member Mitch Williams came to the seat in interesting circumstances, winning as an independent in 1997 at the expense of former Liberal leader Dale Baker. Baker had recently been dumped from cabinet after a conflict-of-interest finding over a government land purchase, details of which were reportedly leaked by Dean Brown supporters seeking revenge for his involvement in John Olsen's 1996 leadership challenge. This was not the first time South Australian voters had shown a lack of sentimentality towards the party's leadership figures, Brown's 1985 defeat in Davenport being the other outstanding example. Williams had been influential in local Liberal Party branches before choosing to run as an independent, and benefited from a statewide slump in Liberal support as well as from Baker's own political troubles.

Williams rejoined the Liberal Party in December 1999, and was promoted to the front bench in April 2004 with the locally important forestry portfolio. His responsibilities since have chopped and changed: most recently he went into the Isobel Redmond leadership changeover with environment and conservation, emergency services and corrective services, and came out with water security, mines and energy security. After the 2006 election he was identified as one of a number of conservative members implacably opposed to a cross-factional deal that would make the Right's Iain Evans leader and moderate Vickie Chapman deputy. Williams ran against Chapman in protest, saying it was “sheer madness” to make deputy “someone who wants to be leader”. His resignation from the shadow ministry in July 2009 was interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward when Hamilton-Smith responded with a leadership spill, at which Williams was believed to have backed Hamilton-Smith over Vickie Chapman. Williams did nominate at the second spill which saw Redmond defeat Chapman, but he was eliminated in the first round.

PREDICTION: Liberal retain