SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

LITTLE PARA Labor 17.3%
Outgoing member: Lea Stevens (Labor) Region: Outer Northern Suburbs Federal divisions: Makin/Wakefield
	DAVID SOMERVILLE Family First LEE ODENWALDER Labor (top) PAUL SHARPE Greens FRANZ KNOLL Liberal (bottom)
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Little Para was known prior to the 2006 election as Elizabeth, a shift eastwards over time having rendered the name inappropriate. Skirting only the eastern part of Elizabeth proper, it now covers four distinct outer north-eastern metropolitan areas. In the north-west of the electorate is eastern Elizabeth, home to 43 per cent of its voters, which as of the 2006 census had an average weekly household income of around $670 (compared with $1103 for the state). The redistribution has added 1506 voters here from Napier, including the locality of Elizabeth and the remainder of Elizabeth East. Labor received 67 per cent of the two-party vote in this area in 2002, and 73 per cent in 2006. Immediately to the south, across the Little Para River, are Salisbury Heights and Salisbury Park: 21 per cent of all voters, about $1215 average weekly household income, Labor 56 per cent in 2002 and 64 per cent in 2006. A kilometre to the south-east, separated by some of the hills surrounding Little Para Reservoir, are about 2500 voters in Greenwith: 14 per cent of all voters, $1380 income, Labor 47 per cent in 2002 and 61 per cent in 2006. This area is the northern extremity of the Golden Grove development (the remainder is in Wright), which began construction in 1985, grew rapidly in the 1990s, and tapered off over the past decade. Finally, another kilometre south-east across Golden Grove's quarries are the suburbs of Surrey Downs and Fairview Park: 22 per cent, $1175, 48 per cent in 2002, 60 per cent in 2006.

Elizabeth and then Little Para had been held for Labor by Lea Stevens since 1994, when she won a by-election initiated by Martyn Evans' move to federal politics in the since-abolished seat of Bonython. Evans initially won Elizabeth as an independent at a 1984 by-election caused by the departure of Left faction chieftain Peter Duncan, who had himself entered federal politics as the inaugural member for Makin). Although continuing to serve as an independent during his 10 years in state parliament, Evans was appointed Health Minister in Lynn Arnold's government, and won preselection for Bonython when Hawke/Keating government minister Neal Blewett retired in 1994. Evans was ultimately voted out in 2004 when the abolition of Bonython forced him to run for Wakefield. For his part, Peter Duncan held Makin until defeated by Trish Draper in 1996.

Stevens served as Health Minister for most of the Rann government's first term, taking time off for ill health in late 2005 after receiving a more than usually rough handling from the media in the notoriously difficult portfolio. She was widely seen to have been pushed when she quit the ministry shortly after. There was speculation ahead of the 2006 election she might relinquish her seat to Tony Zappia, who instead went on to succeed in his second attempt at Makin in 2007. In August 2008, Stevens announced she would bow out at the next election. Michael Owen of The Advertiser wrote of “intense rivalry between Labor's Left and Right factions over whose candidate will get the seat”, but the only candidate to emerge was Lee Odenwalder, a staffer for federal Wakefield MP Nick Champion who had worked for Stevens from 2003 to 2006.

PREDICTION: Labor retain