SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

KAVEL Liberal 8.4%
Region: Eastern Hinterland Federal divisions: Mayo/Barker
	JOHN FULBROOK Labor (bottom) COLIN CROFT Family First MARK GOLDSWORTHY Liberal (top) IAN GROSSER Greens KATHY BRAZHER-DE LAINE Australian Democrats
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Kavel includes most of Mount Barker, which provides by far its largest booth, and stretches a further 25 kilometres through the central Mount Lofty Ranges and beyond. The redistribution has added the Birdwood and Gumeracha area from Schubert in the north and Rockleigh and Monarto east of the Murray River from Hammond, while detaching Hahndorf and the western outskirts of Mount Barker to Kavel and the Adelaide Hills townships of Inglewood Park and Cudlee Creek to Newland. The seat has been held by three Liberal members since its creation in 1970, among them the father and son team of Roger and Mark Goldsworthy. In between, the elder Goldsworthy agreed to surrender the seat to John Olsen in 1992 to facilitate his return to state politics after two years in the Senate, and thence to assume the leadership from Dale Baker. This prompted a counter-measure from factional moderates who prepared the way for Dean Brown's return by persuading Ted Chapman to retire in Alexandrina (now Finniss) shortly afterwards. The two contenders won their respective seats at by-elections held on 9 May 1992 and promptly went head-to-head in a leadership vote, which was won by Brown.

Olsen retired from politics at the 2002 election after being compelled to resign as Premier over the Motorola affair. The circumstances of Olsen's demise, combined with mutterings about Goldsworthy junior inheriting his father's seat, led some punters to place their bets on independent candidate Tom Playford, a Baptist pastor and son of the legendary former Liberal Premier of the same name. Playford indeed gave Mark Goldsworthy a run for his money, finishing ahead of the Labor candidate and falling 2.9 per cent short after preferences. Family First appeared to have scored a coup in landing Playford as their candidate at the 2006 election, but his primary vote fell from 18.7 per cent to 15.7 per cent and he was unable to relegate a resurgent Labor to third place. Goldsworthy earned a place in shadow cabinet after the election in emergency services and state-local government relations. He was bumped to shadow cabinet secretary upon Martin Hamilton-Smith's ascendancy in April 2007 (he had reportedly supported Evans), but recovered his old portfolios when Isobel Redmond took over in July 2009.

PREDICTION: Liberal retain