SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

KAURNA Labor 21.6%
Region: Outer Southern Suburbs Federal division: Kingston
	TRISHA BIRD Liberal (bottom) JASON WUTTKE F.R.E.E. Australia Party MARIE NICHOLLS Australian Democrats JOHN HILL Labor (top) JAMES CHAPPELL Family First YVONNE WENHAM Greens
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Kaurna covers Adelaide's outermost southern coastal suburbs from Christies Beach south to Aldinga Beach, including Port Noarlunga and Seaford. The area is undergoing dramatic population growth, particularly at Aldinga Beach and Seaford Rise in the centre of the electorate. The redistribution has added 871 new voters at Christies Beach in the north-east from Bright, while in the far south 1076 voters at Sellicks Beach (the southern extremity of coastal Adelaide) have been lost to Finniss. Labor polled strongly throughout the electorate in 2006, winning every booth by margins from 16.7 per cent to 26.9 per cent, but was nonetheless unable to carry the seat when it was created at the 1993 election bloodbath. There have also been sharp disparities between voting patterns at recent state and federal elections: the combined booth results were 12.7 per cent and 15.7 per cent above the Labor state average at the 2002 and 2006 state elections, compared with 9.0 per cent and 4.8 per cent at the 2004 and 2007 federal elections. The local swing to Labor in 2007 was just 2.7 per cent, compared with a statewide result of 6.8 per cent.

Labor member John Hill first contested the seat in 1993, becoming the party's state secretary after his defeat. He impressed many with his work rate at the time by simultaneously completing a law degree. Despite being left without a factional base by the collapse of the Centre Left (and remaining unaligned ever since), Hill again won preselection for the 1997 election, at which he picked up an 8.2 per cent swing to defeat Liberal member Lorraine Rosenberg. He moved straight to the front bench as Shadow Environment Minister, and reportedly declined an approach to challenge for the leadership when discontent with Mike Rann developed in 2001. A handsome 6.7 per cent swing secured his hold on the seat at the 2002 election, partly assisted by Rosenberg running as an independent, and he enjoyed another outstanding result in 2006 when he picked up 15.0 per cent on the primary vote and 11.2 per cent on two-party preferred. Hill maintained the environment portfolio in government, and took care of health pending the looming election when Little Para MP Lea Stevens stood aside in November 2005. After the election he maintained health and jettisoned environment.

PREDICTION: Labor retain