SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

HEYSEN Liberal 5.5%
Region: Adelaide Hills Federal divisions: Mayo/Boothby
	STEPHANIE GHELLER Labor (bottom) ANDREW CASTRIQUE Australian Democrats LYNTON VONOW Greens JOHN DAY Family First ISOBEL REDMOND Liberal (top)
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Liberal leader Isobel Redmond's electorate of Heysen is located in the Adelaide Hills, which was historically been the epicentre of the Australian Democrats. There is room for dispute as to whether Heysen or Waite is the successor to Mitcham, the only lower house seat ever held by the party. The redistribution has substantially redrawn the electorate, with the general effect of drawing it out of Adelaide. In the west, the Clarendon and Belair areas have been transferred to Fisher and Davenport; in the north, the area around Uraidla goes to Bragg and Morialta; in the south, Mount Compass and its surrounds go to Finniss, reversing a change from the previous redistribution. These losses have allowed the electorate to absorb the town of Strathalbyn, formerly in Hammond to the east, along with Hahndorf and the outskirts of Mount Barker, formerly in Kavel.

Heysen was created when rural vote weighting was abolished in 1970, but disappeared between 1977 and 1985. David Wotton held it for the Liberals at both ends of the scale, from 1975 to 1977 and again from 1985 to 2002, holding the more rural seat of Murray in between. Wotton suffered a number of close calls over the years at the hands of the Democrats, with help from Labor's tactic of running dead. The Democrats' last gasp was when Wotton retired in 2002, when they polled 16.3 per cent and came within 4.0 per cent of victory after preferences. The Greens have at least partly filled the void, their 17.7 per cent primary vote in 2006 being slightly higher than the Democrats' 16.3 per cent in 2002. This still left them 8.2 per cent behind Labor at the second last count, but the Newspoll of October-December 2009 suggested the statewide gap between the two parties has since closed by at least that much. However, the strength of the Liberal primary vote is such that they are unlikely to pose a threat in the immediate future.

Wotton's successor as Liberal member was solicitor Isobel Redmond, who like Wotton had been linked to the Evans family faction said to dominate local branches. Redmond was quickly promoted and made the front bench in April 2004, taking on family and communities, housing and disability services. There were suggestions after the 2006 election that conservatives unhappy with a factional deal to make Vickie Chapman deputy leader would seek to install Redmond as a compromise candidate. Redmond complained of interference by federal MPs in reaching the deal and made a vain protest by running for the leadership instead, scoring two votes to Iain Evans's 20. Evans gave her the Attorney-General and justice portfolios while keeping her in ageing and disability, and she maintained these positions after supporting Evans during Martin Hamilton-Smith's successful leadership challenge in April 2007.

As Hamilton-Smith's leadership floundered in the aftermath of the fake emails affair in June 2009, Redmond was seen to add fuel to the fire when she said if given the opportunity to lead she would “grab it with both hands and go with it”. However, she declined to put her name forward when Hamilton-Smith called for a spill the following month, instead taking the deputy leadership from Chapman when she failed by one vote to topple Hamilton-Smith. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round.

PREDICTION: Liberal retain