SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

FROME Liberal 4.2%*
Region: Port Pirie/Clare Valley Federal divisions: Grey/Wakefield * Independent 1.7% vs Liberal at by-election held 17/1/2009
	JOY O'BRIEN Greens TERRY BOYLAN Liberal (centre) JOHN ROHDE Labor (bottom) MAX VAN DISSEL Save RAH GEOFF BROCK Independent (top) JOHN McCOMB Family First
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Frome covers a 30 kilometre stretch of the eastern Spencer Gulf coastline that includes Port Pirie, and extends south-eastwards through Clare Valley wine country to Tarlee, about 50 kilometres north of Adelaide. The redistribution has added the southern part of coastal Barunga West District Council from Goyder. Slightly more than half the electorate's voters are in small country towns such as Gladstone, Crystal Brook and Clare, which have kept the seat out of Labor hands since it was created in 1993. Frome entered folklore at the by-election held on 17 January 2009 after the retirement of the previous member, former Premier Rob Kerin. It appeared in the days after polling day that Liberal candidate Terry Boylan had weathered a challenge from independent Geoff Brock, the mayor of Port Pirie, who had been buoyed by the Nationals' decision to issue a split how-to-vote card inviting voters to preference either candidate. Brock's apparent failure to overtake Labor's John Rohde at the second last count meant the Liberals would retain the seat with a margin over Labor of just under 2 per cent, prompting them to issue a press release congratulating their candidate on his victory. However, when the preference count was conducted it emerged the number-crunchers had failed to recognise the volume of Greens preferences flowing to Brock ahead of Labor, which put him 30 votes ahead at the second-last count and on to a narrow victory.

Frome was created at the 1993 election when Port Pirie was detached from Stuart, which had previously accommodated both Port Pirie and Port Augusta. Port Pirie is an industrial town whose principal attraction is Pasminco's lead and zinc smelter, and it provided Labor with a safe seat in the days when it formed an electorate in its own right (which ended when rural vote weighting was abolished in 1970). There has since been a decline in both Port Pirie's relative population and Labor's share of the vote. Rob Kerin entered parliament with the seat's creation, serving as Premier from October 2001 to March 2002 and remaining as Liberal leader until after the 2006 election debacle. He had made it known in advance of his resignation that he would not contest the 2010 election, and the Liberals had preselected Port Pirie policeman Terry Boylan to succeed him.

Geoff Brock's triumph followed six years as mayor of Port Pirie Regional Council, 20 on council and 31 working at Port Pirie's Nyrstar smelter. He polled 39.2 per cent of the vote in the Port Pirie booths against only 9.8 per cent elsewhere, for a total of 23.6 per cent to Labor's 26.1 per cent and Boylan's 39.2 per cent (21.3 per cent in Port Pirie, 55.7 per cent elsewhere). Nearly half the preferences from the 6.6 per cent Nationals vote favoured Brock over Boylan and Labor, as did a clear majority of the 3.8 per cent Greens vote, leaving Brock second out of the last three: Boylan 8215, Brock 5562, Rohde 5532. After Rohde's preferences flowed overwhelmingly to Brock, the final count had Brock ahead of Boylan 9987 votes to 9322. Terry Boylan and John Rohde will against run for their respective parties at the election.

Speaking on ABC Mornings with David Bevan and Matthew Abraham a fortnight before the election, Geoff Brock said that in the event that he held a balance-of-power position, he would seek commitments to upgrades of natural gas pipelines into cities in the upper Spencer Gulf, and commitments on water security.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL GAIN