SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

FINNISS Liberal 4.3%
Region: Fleurieu Peninsula Federal divisions: Mayo/Kingston
	BRUCE HICKS Family First DIANE ATKINSON Greens MICHAEL PENGILLY Liberal (top) MARIS ZALUPS Independent MARY-LOUISE CORCORAN Country Labor (bottom)
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Known as Alexandrina until 1993, Finniss has for most of its history consisted of Kangaroo Island, the Fleurieu Peninsula and as much of the mainland beyond as was necessary to make up the numbers (Kangaroo Island was briefly moved to distant Flinders in 1993 after new laws put a higher premium on electoral fairness than community of interest, but this was reversed at the subsequent election following objections from locals on either side). The latter component has been dwindling with successive redistributions as incoming retirees swell the population, displacing its identity as a farming area without changing its party allegiance. The current redistribution has removed over 5000 voters around Goolwa at the mouth of the Murray River, while adding Adelaide's southernmost coastal suburb Sellicks Beach (the only part of the electorate in the metropolitan area) and rural territory further east around Mount Compass (reversing a change from the previous redistribution), respectively adding 1076 and 1364 voters.

Alexandrina was long held by moderate factional stalwart Ted Chapman, father of Bragg MP and former deputy leader Vickie Chapman, who agreed to surrender it in 1992 to facilitate Dean Brown's return to parliament. Brown had been a leading figure among the moderates since entering parliament in 1973, and was at one stage a member of Steele Hall's Liberal Movement, a faction of which formed the nucleus of the Australian Democrats. In 1985 he lost his seat of Davenport to Stan Evans, a Liberal MP and factional enemy who stood as an independent after failing to win a preselection showdown that followed a tough redistribution. Brown's return in Alexandrina was part of a plan by moderates to install him in the leadership in the stead of John Olsen, who was then planning a negotiated takeover from Dale Baker (who had replaced Olsen as leader when he moved to the Senate after his second election defeat). Olsen also faced the hurdle of needing to return to the state parliament, which he was negotiating through the voluntary retirement of Roger Goldsworthy in Kavel. Brown and Olsen both won by-elections held on 9 May 1992 and a leadership showdown followed immediately, at which Brown extracted revenge for his defeat in the previous bout after the Tonkin government's election defeat in 1982.

Brown became Premier when the electorate put Lynn Arnold's Labor government out of its misery in December 1993, but his cautious style led to unfavourable comparisons with Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett. He was deposed in November 1996 by his old nemesis John Olsen, but continued to serve in his government. He stood unsuccessfully for the leadership when the Motorola affair compelled Olsen to resign in October 2001, instead winning the deputy position following his defeat by Rob Kerin. The leadership team remained intact after the 2002 election defeat, but Evans stood aside in November 2005 and announced he would not contest the next election. There followed a hotly contested preselection won by Kangaroo Island mayor Michael Pengilly (who at 55 was twice the age of his rivals), Victor Harbor mayor Scott Schubert and Vickie Chapman staffer John Gardner (now running in Morialta). Pengilly won 39 votes against 17 for Schubert and five for Gardner.

Michael Pengilly retained the seat without serious incident, notwithstanding a challenge by the Nationals and a par for the course 9.4 per cent two-party swing to Labor. He won instant promotion to parliamentary secretary for transport, energy, instrastructure and regional development, and was elevated to shadow cabinet in the tourism, consumer affairs and veterans portfolios when Flinders MP Liz Penfold stood aside in January 2007. He was one of six MPs to sign Martin Hamilton-Smith's letter initiating a leadership spill the following April, and afterwards exchanged consumer affairs for state-local government relations and southern suburbs. Somewhat surprisingly, Hamilton-Smith's September 2008 reshuffle saw him dropped from the front bench to make way for Hammond MP Adrian Pederick, relegating him to parliamentary secretary for veterans affairs and the southern suburbs. He was restored when Isobel Redmond became leader in July 2009, taking on correctional services, southern suburbs and veterans affairs.

Labor has again nominated its candidate from 2006, Mary Lou Corcoran, whose father Des Corcoran was Premier for seven months in 1979 between the retirement of Don Dunstan and the government's unexpected election defeat. There have also been suggestions that Alexandrina mayor Kym McHugh, who ran for the Nationals in 2006 and considered nominating for Liberal preselection, will run as an independent.

PREDICTION: Liberal retain