SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

ELDER Labor 15.4%
Region: Inner Southern Suburbs Federal divisions: Boothby/Hindmarsh
	DARYL BULLEN Greens PAT CONLON Labor (top) BEN TURNER Liberal (bottom) GREG CROKE Australian Democrats WENDY HAY Family First
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Elder consists of suburbs directly south of the city, from Park Holme east to Melrose Park and south to Mitchell Park. A slight lean to the Liberals at Oaklands Park and Marion in the electorate's south-western corner is more than cancelled out by Labor strength elsewhere, particularly around the now defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant at Clovelly Park in the central south. Labor's margin has been cut by 0.4 per cent after four substantial changes in the redistribution: Morphettville in the west has been transferred to Morphett; further south, parts of Oaklands Park and Marion have gone to Mitchell; immediately to the east of the latter area, Mitchell Park and Clovelly Park have been absorbed from Mitchell; in the north, part of Clarence Gardens has been gained from Ashford. The seat was notionally Labor when it was created in 1993, but not sufficiently so to hold back the tide at an election where Labor failed to win a single metropolitan seat south of the Torrens. David Wade was defeated after one term as Liberal member, suffering a 6.1 per cent swing at the 1997 election. Labor only slightly consolidated its hold in 2002, but as with so many other Adelaide marginals it recorded a resounding swing in 2006, in this case by 11.3 per cent.

The seat is held for Labor by Patrick Conlon, a senior figure in the Left faction with a background as staffer to former Senator Nick Bolkus and official with the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union. Conlon was the Left's preferred candidate to take over the deputy leadership after Annette Hurley failed in her bid to win Light at the 2002 election, but the position instead went to Kevin Foley of the Right, with whom he is said to be close despite their factional differences. Conlon became Police and Emergency Services Minister in the new government, but his position within the faction was thought to have been weakened by his role in recruiting independent Mount Gambier MP Rory McEwen to cabinet in November 2002. This upset ambitious junior members including the Left's rising star, Cheltenham MP Jay Weatherill. Conlon's move from police to infrastructure the following May was seen as a step down, and the subsequent failure of Nick Bolkus's attempt to manoeuvre him into his Senate seat led Conlon to temporarily part with the faction. However, he soon reasserted himself and gained the significant transport portfolio on top of his existing responsibilites in March 2005.

There was speculation Conlon would take Attorney-General from Michael Atkinson in mid-2008, despite the dissension such a move would have caused from the Right. However, both stayed put in a reshuffle that proved so cautious it led to talk that Mike Rann might be dumped in favour of Kevin Foley due to anger among back-benchers who had failed to win promotion. In October, The Advertiser reported Conlon had “counselled Mr Foley against any moves to replace the Premier”. It was also said Conlon was “positioning himself to take over as deputy should the opportunity present itself”, but that he had “privately made it clear to MPs he has never had any ambition to be leader”. He was similarly quick to douse any talk he might replace Rann when the Michelle Chantelois episode came to a head in November 2009.

On December 16, Treasurer Kevin Foley announced the government would buy the Tonsley Park site from Mitsubishi for $32.5 million with a view to turning it into a “green technology and manufacturing hub”. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that as part of the deal, Mitsubishi will retain its Australian headquarters and more than 250 workers at the site. Most of the funding comes from a grant the government issued to Mitsubishi in 2004, which it was required to return when the plant was terminated in early 2008 with the loss of 1200 jobs.

PREDICTION: Labor retain