SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 2010

DAVENPORT Liberal 6.5%
Region: Southern Suburbs Federal divisions: Boothby/Mayo
	NAT ELLIOTT Greens ROBERT DE JONGE Independent JAMES WANGMANN Labor (bottom) NATASHA BURFIELD Family First BRIDGID MEDDER Australian Democrats IAIN EVANS Liberal (top)
Electoral District Boundaries Commission map

Davenport is located at the outer inland edge of the metropolitan area south of the city, from Bellevue Heights east to Hawthorndene. The redistribution has added national park areas in Belair and Upper Sturt to the east, and made minor adjustments to its southern boundary with Fisher. This area was once a stronghold for the Australian Democrats, who came within 5 per cent of victory in 1997. Since 1993 it has been held by Iain Evans, the son of former member Stan Evans and inheritor of his power base in the Right. Stan Evans came to the seat in memorable circumstances in 1985, when a redistribution left him and Dean Brown competing for Liberal preselection. Brown emerged the victor but Evans challenged him as an independent and won, embarrassing Brown who was hoping to contest the leadership. Brown returned to parliament in 1992 when Ted Chapman agreed to relinquish Finniss so he could thwart the Right's bid to have John Olsen return to the leadership after his two-year stint in the Senate, which was facilitated by Roger Goldsworthy making way for him in Kavel. With Brown and Olsen duly elected at by-elections, Brown prevailed in the ensuing leadership ballot.

Iain Evans had previously had his eye on Kavel, but came to Davenport instead when his father chose to retire in 1993. He arrived just in time for a Liberal government in which he quickly established himself, serving in cabinet from December 1997 as Police, Industry, Trade and Environment Minister. He was discussed as a potential successor when John Olsen was obliged to resign over the Motorola affair in October 2001. In the first term of opposition he shadowed the planning and industrial relations ministers, and was reckoned a strong performer in parliament. This period was marked by rivalry between Iain Evans and moderate rival Vickie Chapman, daughter of the aforementioned Ted, over who would succeed the floundering Rob Kerin. Evans's faction emerged the stronger from the election, and Chapman agreed to serve as deputy in a unity ticket that greatly upset her more implacable foes in the Right.

Evans lasted barely a year in the job, a victim of mediocre poll ratings, a vaguely defined failure to cut through, a feud with state party president Christopher Moriarty, and ultimately generations-old factional rivalries. Chapman agreed to throw her weight behind Martin Hamilton-Smith in April 2007 on the condition he maintain her as deputy, allowing Hamilton-Smith to defeat Evans in the leadership vote 13 to 10. Evans was subsequently charged with portfolios including education, federal-state relations and public sector management, but was demoted in February 2008 with an exchange of the latter two for consumer affairs. The following July he sought federal preselection to replace Alexander Downer at the Mayo by-election, but Jamie Briggs reportedly defeated him by 46 in a ballot of “almost 300 branch members”. Since Isobel Redmond became leader in July 2009, Evans's responsibilities have been WorkCover, industrial relations, small business, consumer affairs, gambling and “red tape reduction”.

PREDICTION: Liberal retain