THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

SCHUBERT
Liberal 13.6%

Schubert includes the Barossa Valley and its population centres Nuriootpa, Tanunda and Angaston, plus further territory to the south and east. The south includes the towns of Mount Pleasant, Springton and Eden Valley on the B10, and the east includes occasional outposts including Mannum and Sedan. The electorate has been substantially affected by the redistribution, gaining territory in the west (4000 voters around Kersbrook from Kavel plus 900 from Light) and losing it to the east (3000 voters around Kapunda to Stuart and 400 to Hammond in a move that conforms the south-eastern border with the Murray River). The Kapunda adjustment accounted for more than half of the objections submitted to the Boundaries Commission, partly due to the displeasure of Ivan Venning who will have to move his electorate office. The concern was not reciprocated in the Liberal Party's official submission, nor acted upon in the final determination.

Liberal member Ivan Venning (left) was member of the predecessor seat Custance from 1990, assuming Schubert on its creation in 1997. His father Howard Venning was also a long-serving Liberal MP and he is seen as part of the Right faction that is deemed synonymous with the Adelaide establishment. Venning has never made the front-bench but he has still kept his hand in since entering opposition, directing a lot of energy to a crusade against drug driving. In 2004 he introduced a private member's bill designed to deal with the matter, and was ejected from parliament in April for refusing to withdraw the word "hypocrites" while criticising the government's refusal to back it. Venning has never served on the front bench, although he claims Labor's Kevin Foley offered him primary industries during horse-trading after the 2002 election in the hope that he might defect from the Liberal Party. He did not let his lack of ministerial experience stop him making a pitch for the leadership in April 2005 which, according to an unidentified Liberal MP quoted in The Advertiser, "lasted about 20 seconds". The following month, Venning rejected an assertion from The Advertiser's Craig Bildstein that he was the "likely villain behind claims that the Opposition was 'paralysed' under Rob Kerin's leadership". Bildstein said this backfired on whoever the perpetrator might have been as it had shored up support for Kerin. Former party vice-president John Batten challenged him for preselection in March 2005, a move Venning described as "very much a surprise".

Labor's candidate for the second election running is Kym Wilson (right).

During the 2002 election campaign the Liberal government made a surprise decision to make the Barossa Valley hamlet of Rosedale part of the heavy truck bypass route to relieve Gawler, located in the crucial neighbouring marginal seat of Light. This was done without consulting Venning who admitted he would face a voter backlash, but his primary vote was down a modest 3.4 per cent. Since the bigger threat in previous elections had come from the Australian Democrats, he actually emerged ahead on two-party preferred.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain

At first glance, Ivan Venning appeared to have done well to lose only 2.5 per cent of his primary vote, but last time he had competition from the Nationals who polled 5.0 per cent. A better measure of the outcome is Labor's 7.2 per cent two-party swing and 11.3 per cent lift on the primary vote. After a clean sweep in 2002, Venning finished behind in Williamstown and the small One Tree Hill booth. Family First polled a healthy 7.9 per cent on debut, while the Democrats – who could once expect to run second here – were down 5.2 per cent to 3.6 per cent, well behind the Greens' 7.5 per cent.

OUTCOME: Liberal retain (6.4%)