THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

RAMSAY
Labor 20.8%

The electorate of Premier Mike Rann (right) is located in the northern suburbs and is dominated by Salisbury, south-west of Elizabeth. The redistribution has neatened the electorate by moving 3360 voters in a salient between Main North Road and the railway to Port Adelaide. The loss of the rapidly growing and Liberal-leaning suburb of Mawson Lakes helps Ramsay overtake Port Adelaide as Labor's safest seat. Mike Rann is the second successive Labor Premier to have represented the seat, Lynn Arnold having held it from its creation in 1985 until he moved to Taylor in 1993.

Rann was born in England and emigrated to New Zealand in 1962 at the age of six, eventually making his way to Adelaide after a career in journalism to take up a job offer from Don Dunstan. He won favour with successive Labor leaders as press secretary to the Premier's Office and won preselection to the northern suburbs seat of Briggs in 1986, despite being factionally non-aligned. Rann served as Employment Minister in John Bannon's government and Business and Tourism Minister in Lynn Arnold's, becoming deputy leader when Frank Blevins stepped aside after the 1993 election. When Lynn Arnold quit politics 10 months later, Rann was clearly the senior figure among Labor's nine remaining lower house members.

The party's representation swelled to 21 seats at the 1997 election, and while this was three short of a majority it was enough to secure Rann's position, at least for the time being. Things appeared to change when polls in 2001 suggested Labor was failing to capitalise on the government's mounting problems, which most put down to Rann's blusteringly aggressive style. In the recent book Yes, Premier: Labor Leadership in Australia's States and Territories, Adelaide academic Haydon Manning wrote that "reliable sources" had spoken of Rann "reminding his parliamentary colleagues that he had been 'promised' two campaigns and, more ominously, that he would create havoc if deposed".

John Olsen's resignation after the Motorola affair in October 2001 appeared to hand certain victory to Rann, until it became apparent that new Premier Rob Kerin had been an immediate hit with voters due to the contrast between his "good bloke" earthiness and Mike Rann's sterile professionalism. Rann appeared to have fallen short on the night of the 2002 election, picking up two seats when three were needed for a majority. He was rescued from obscurity by the sensational decision of the Liberal-turned-independent member for Hammond, Peter Lewis, to support a Labor government. From that turning point, Rann has emerged as the country's highest rated leader in opinion polls and appears headed for a comfortable re-election on the back of a strengthening economy and astute management of a delicately placed minority government.

The Liberal candidate is Damien Pilkington (left), a Salisbury councillor.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain

Mike Rann has maintained Ramsay's claim to the title of Labor's safest seat with a 7.7 per cent swing, despite a challenge from Trish White in neighbouring Taylor.

OUTCOME: Labor retain (28.5%)