THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

MAWSON
Liberal 3.5%

Mawson is a mixed electorate that includes the McLaren Vale vineyards and their surrounds south of Adelaide, with incursions into the outer suburbs in Woodcroft and around Huntfield Heights to the east of Port Noarlunga. Handsome Labor majorities in the latter booths in 2002 were more than cancelled out by the strong Liberal vote in McLaren Vale, McLaren Flat and Onkaparinga Hills. Heavily over quota going into the redistribution, Mawson loses around 1400 voters in the urbanised western end of Onkaparinga Hills to Reynell, with little impact on the margin.

Robert Brokenshire (left) was a dairy farmer and real estate partner before entering parliament, after which he progressed quickly through the ranks of government to the position of Police and Emergency Services Minister, portfolios he has maintained in opposition. Health was added to his already demanding workload when it was left vacant by Dean Brown's retirement announcement in November 2005, and he has recently been mentioned as a dark horse leadership contender. He survived a spot of trouble earlier in the year stemming from his period as Emergency Services Minister, when an Adelaide Bank donation to the helicopter ambulance service was diverted to a new ambulance station in his electorate. Labor called for him to be dumped from the front bench following the release of an Auditor-General's report, but the issue lost steam when Speaker Peter Lewis rejected their call for a privileges committee hearing. In the event, the ambulance station was not built and the funds went to general revenue.

Brokenshire has an impressive electoral record, suffering the state's smallest anti-Liberal swing in 1997 (4.9 per cent) and holding his ground in 2002 to end Mawson's long-standing record as a bellwether (since its creation in 1970, it had changed hands along with the government in 1979, 1982 and 1993). His current Labor opponent is Leon Bignell (right), formerly a high-profile ABC sports reporter and more recently a media adviser to Patrick Conlon, who won preselection ahead of police officer Peter Schulze. A Sunday Mail poll of 500 voters on November 9 had the two contenders tied on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. An undisclosed Liberal source quoted in the Sunday Mail on January 15 made positive noises about party polling.

The electorate would benefit from a proposed extension of the Adelaide to Noarlunga rail line to Seaford, currently the subject of a feasibility study. It has been suggested that this might be the subject of an announcement during the campaign. Traffic congestion and potholes on Victor Harbor Road between Willunga Hill and Mount Compass are a recurring local issue, kept in the spotlight by a series of fatal accidents.

The aforementioned Victor Harbor Road hazard inspired the Liberals to make a keynote election promise to build a $130 million four-lane highway between Adelaide and Victor Harbor. The announcement scored an encouraging front-page headline ("Kerin to fix killer road") in The Advertiser, a paper many have faulted for coverage that seems tailored to curtail the extent of Labor's seemingly inevitable victory. The following day, Treasurer Kevin Foley accused the Liberals of being $200 million out on their costings, but Greg Kelton of The Advertiser reports that the Liberal estimate was supported by both the RAA and the Committee for Adelaide Roads. The intensity of the contest for Mawson was also demonstrated earlier in the campaign when Labor matched a Liberal promise to build an ambulance station at the Southern Districts War Memorial Hospital in McLaren Vale, which was first made going into the 2002 election. Tanya Westthorp of the Southern Times Messenger reports that Mike Rann announced $800,000 would be spent on its construction and $970,000 a year contributed towards operating costs.

ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN

Robert Brokenshire only dropped 0.5 per cent on the primary vote and suffered a relatively mild 5.7 per cent two-party swing, but that will be little consolation to him as it was enough to put an end to his promising career. The gap between his primary and two-party outcome can be put down to the 5.0 per cent for the Greens, who did not contest in 2002, along with a no-show from One Nation and a rare drop in the Family First vote (down 0.3 per cent to 6.4 per cent).

OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (2.2%)