THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

MacKILLOP
Liberal 11.4% versus Independent

MacKillop covers the south-eastern corner of the state against the border of Victoria (extending about 200 kilometres from north to south), excluding the easternmost coastal territory which constitutes Mount Gambier. Major population centres include the Dukes Highway towns of Bordertown, Keith and Coonalpyn, along with Millicent, Lucindale and Naracoorte further south. Liberal Party majorities were recorded in all booths in 2002, although margins were notably smaller in Millicent.

Mitch Williams (left) came to the seat in interesting circumstances, winning as an independent in 1997 at the expense of former Liberal leader Dale Baker. Baker had recently been dumped from cabinet after being implicated in a conflict-of-interest finding over a government land purchase, details of which were reportedly leaked by Dean Brown supporters seeking revenge for his involvement in John Olsen's 1996 leadership putsch. This was not the first time South Australian voters had shown a lack of sentimentality towards the party's leadership figures, Brown's 1985 loss in Davenport being another outstanding example. Williams had earlier been influential in local Liberal Party branches, and he benefited from a statewide slump in Liberal support as well as from Baker's own political troubles.

Williams rejoined the Liberal Party in December 1999 and easily held the seat at the 2002 election with a primary vote majority. This was despite expectations he would be threatened by independent candidate Bill Hender, a former Country Labor Association president who quit the party after responding unhappily to an upper house preselection defeat. Hender did manage to win second place from 15.6 per cent of the primary vote, but this was of little avail against Williams' 52.1 per cent. Williams was promoted to the opposition front bench in the April 2004 reshuffle, at which he was given the locally important forestry portfolio.

Labor candidate Philip Golding (right) also ran at the 2002 election.

Mitch Williams has been engaged in a series of disputes with the South East Catchment Water Management Board over water licence allocations and revenue measures, calling for an elected board and the resignation of presiding chairman Jim Osborne. In late 2004 he moved a motion to disallow changes to water regulations that pleased irrigators but angered the forestry industry, of which Williams has often been supportive.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain

Even considering that he was spared the complication of independent challenger Bill Hender this time, this was an outstanding result for Mitch Williams under the circumstances. On the basis of the post-redistribution margins estimated by the State Electoral Office, Williams was the only Liberal candidate to pick up a two-party swing (of 1.8 per cent). His primary vote was up 7.8 per cent, fractionally higher than Labor's increase. This was despite the fact that Family First (7.0 per cent) and the Greens (4.2 per cent) partly filled Hender's void after failing to contest the seat in 2002. It was also the only seat where the Democrats' vote improved, albeit from a low base (up from 2.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor did at least win one booth this time, in its relatively strong area of Millicent South.

OUTCOME: Liberal retain (22.2%)