THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

LITTLE PARA
Labor 7.1%

Formerly known as Elizabeth, Little Para is the only electorate to have had its name changed in the current redistribution, somewhat surprisingly given that the boundaries have not changed. The electorate has been shifted over time into lightly populated territory east of Elizabeth and now contains only the eastern part of the city, although this area still accounts for most of its voters. The Liberal voting outer suburbs of Fairview Park and Surrey Downs were added at the far eastern end in the previous redistribution, which cut Labor's margin by 5.9 per cent.

Lea Stevens (left) has held the seat for Labor since a 1994 by-election initiated when predecessor Martyn Evans moved to the federal seat of Bonython. Evans won as an independent at a 1984 by-election upon the departure of Left faction chieftain Peter Duncan, who also left for federal politics (as the inaugural member for Makin). Although continuing to serve as an independent during his 10 years in state parliament, Evans was appointed Health Minister in Lynn Arnold's government and won Labor preselection for the federal seat of Bonython when Hawke/Keating government minister Neal Blewett retired mid-term in 1994. Evans was ultimately voted out in 2004 after the abolition of Bonython forced him to run for Wakefield; for his part, Peter Duncan lost Makin in 1996 to Liberal candidate Trish Draper, who has held it ever since.

Stevens' factional backing originally came from the Centre Left, but she managed to cross over to the Left after the Centre Left was reduced to a rump by the 1993 election result. By the end of the period of Liberal government she held the crucial shadow portfolios of health and family and community services, maintaining the former when the Rann government came to power in 2002. Stevens suffered a more than usually rough handling from the media in the notoriously difficult portfolio, and time taken off in late 2005 due to ill health was not greeted with due sympathy. She was widely seen to have been pushed when she quit the ministry in November 2005, at which point John Hill assumed it on a temporary basis pending a post-election reshuffle. Her Liberal opponent for the second successive election is Ron Watts (right), manager of the Northern Business Enterprise Centre.

On February 23, The Advertiser reported speculation that either Lea Stevens or Trish White – who also quit the front bench last year – might make a last-minute decision to retire to make way for Salisbury mayor Tony Zappia. Zappia was Labor's unsuccessful candidate for Makin at the 2004 federal election, having secured the nomination after complicated factional wranglings similar to those that controversially cost him preselection in 2001 (the winner being Gail Gago, who is now in the state upper house). Only with the closure of nominations the following week was it clear that this had not come to pass.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain

The 9.6 per cent swing to Labor in the newly renamed electorate was fairly typical for Adelaide, although the swing was variable in keeping with the mixed nature of the electorate. In the more Liberal-leaning eastern part of the electorate, swings were well into double figures in keeping with those in neighbouring Newland (which would be a more logical home for these suburbs, but they have been awkwardly tacked on here for the sake of "fair" margins). In the rock-solid Labor area of Elizabeth in the west, where there was less slack to be taken up, swings were in the order of 5 per cent. Family First improved further on a strong 2002 result, up 1.4 per cent to 8.8 per cent.

OUTCOME: Labor retain (16.7%)