THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

LIGHT
Liberal 2.6%

Light bears the name of colonial founding father Colonel William Light, and a seat of this name has existed since the establishment of self-government in 1857. In modern times it has been based on Gawler, a satellite town north of Adelaide that is being steadily drawn into the capital's orbit. The electorate also includes the outer suburb of Munno Para to the south and semi-rural territory as far as Light River to the north. There is a wide variation in voting patterns across the electorate, with Labor's two-party vote topping 70 per cent around Munno Para and falling well below 40 per cent in the rural booths of Freeling, Greenock and Roseworthy. The current redistribution has made an incremental addition to a long-term trend of urbanisation by moving 900 voters in its outer north-eastern reaches to Schubert.

In all its existence Light was only ever won by Labor at the party's national high-water mark during World War II. That looked like it might change ahead of the 2002 election when a redistribution added the area around Munno Para, slashing the Liberal margin from 6.4 per cent to 1.4 per cent and making life uncomfortable for sitting member Malcolm Buckby (left), the Education Minister in the Olsen/Brown/Kerin government. This made Light a seat they needed to win if they were score a majority in what loomed as a tight election. Deputy leader Annette Hurley volunteered to put her career on the line (in the short term at least) by abandoning her safe neighbouring seat of Napier and contesting Light for Labor. While Hurley managed to add 4.0 per cent to Labor's primary vote, the Democrats collapse (from 21.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent) and the 4.7 per cent vote for Family First meant preferences were less favourable than in 1997, and Buckby added 1.0 per cent to his two-party margin. Hurley has since been rewarded for her sacrifice with a Senate seat and a position in the outer shadow ministry.

Malcolm Buckby is a former research economist and farmer who came to the seat in 1993 when he replaced Bruce Eastick, a 23-year veteran and one-time Opposition Leader. Buckby enjoyed a big promotion after the 1997 election when he was appointed Education Minister, and he has handled the transport, urban development and planning portfolios in opposition. He stepped aside from shadow cabinet in April 2004, ostensibly to defend his seat which is again under threat from a strong Labor candidate. This time it's Gawler mayor Tony Piccolo (right), who contested unsuccessfully way back in 1985 when he was 25. In defiance of broader trends, a Sunday Mail poll of 470 voters on November 9 had Buckby leading 47 per cent to 39 per cent, or 52-48 on two-party preferred.

The Liberals' focus on obstetric services at Gawler Hospital as part of their attacks on Health Minister Lea Stevens was seen to indicate their sensitivity about the seat. Heavy truck traffic through Gawler's heritage main thoroughfare, Murray Street, was rated as the most contentious local issue at the 2002 election. The Kerin government made a surprise decision during the campaign to redirect traffic through the Barossa Valley hamlet of Rosedale, located in the unendangered neighbouring electorate of Schubert.

In the final week of the campaign, Malcolm Buckby became a target of Labor ads publicising a statement he made at a meeting at Northside Church in Gawler, which was told that while the Liberals would "try to maintain the promises we put out to the electorate running up to the election … not every one is going to be delivered". The Liberals protested that he was referring in part to the potential for obstruction by the upper house (although there doesn’t appear to be anything about this in the full transcript released to The Advertiser), and accused Labor of reaching "a new low by secretly filming part of a church service and using it in a political advertisement". The church concurred, telling The Advertiser that its hospitality had been abused by Labor.

ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN

Malcolm Buckby did fairly well to limit the swing to 4.7 per cent (and was slow to admit defeat), but it wasn't enough to stop Labor winning the seat for the first time in more than 60 years. The swings were all over the shop in the outer suburban booths in the far south, with Labor picking up 14.0 per cent in Angle Vale but actually suffering swings against it in Smithfield Plains and Munno Para (though from a very high base in each case). Swings in the Gawler and country town booths were around 5 per cent, which was not enough to cost the Liberals their majorities there. In fact, Buckby won nine booths out of 16, but these tended to involve either small booths or small margins.

OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (2.6%)