THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

HAMMOND
Independent 2.3% vs Liberal

Hammond includes the last 50 kilometres of the Murray River before it empties into Lake Alexandrina, an area to the west almost as far as Mount Barker, and a thinly populated eastwards expanse extending all the way to the Victorian border. Peter Lewis (right) won a roughly comparable seat called Mallee in 1979 and has seen its name change three times, most recently from Ridley in 1997. Lewis developed a reputation as a maverick long before he formally parted company with the Liberal Party, from which he became increasingly estranged after John Olsen's 1996 leadership coup. He quit in July 2000 to head off his expulsion after he called for Dean Brown to take the leadership back from Olsen, which ended a seven month period of majority government that began when independent MacKillop MP Mitch Williams joined the party the previous December.

Lewis ran at the 2002 election under the since-forgotten banner of the "Community Leadership Independence Coalition" and retained the seat with Labor preferences, after trailing Liberal candidate Barry Featherston 41.2 per cent to 31.7 per cent on the primary vote. He was furiously courted by both parties following the indecisive election outcome, with both sides offering the Speaker's position he had long coveted, along with concessions to his electorate and a promise to hold a constitutional convention (which was duly held and quickly forgotten). His shock announcement that he would back Labor came days after a public statement that he would never do so, and hours after he signed a working agreement with the Liberals. Lewis said he reached his decision because a government relying on one independent was preferable to one relying on four.

The Liberal Party complained to the Court of Disputed Returns that Lewis led voters to believe he would back a Liberal government, and while this had moral force - Lewis had run campaign radio ads declaring that "the Liberal Party machine, saying a vote for me could make Mr Rann premier, is a sleazy nonsense and smears my name" - it is a non-negotiable legal fact that members of parliament can vote however they choose, and so the Supreme Court ultimately ruled in October 2002. The Liberals also became suddenly very concerned about Lewis's commercial dealings with Terry Stephens, a convicted criminal who had done time for armed robbery and fraud. Speaking in federal parliament, Barker MP Patrick Secker asked why Mike Rann was dealing with "a person as desperate as Peter Lewis", and whether any advantage had been offered to "get him out of his financial predicament". Stephens would later sue Lewis for $19 million, claiming he had failed to uphold a deal in which Stephens was to pay $9 million for a 75 per cent stake in Lewis's struggling mining company Goldus and Lewis was to sell antique pistols worth $10 million on Stephens' behalf. Stephens was on the run from police in South Australia, Western Australia and New South Wales at the time, and the case was thrown out in November 2003 while he repaid a debt to society in Western Australia. More promisingly for the Liberals, Lewis's business troubles led to bankruptcy proceedings that would have forced his resignation had they gone the distance, but they were eventually resolved in January 2005.

The Liberals' hostile reaction to the Lewis speakership was predictable enough, but his unorthodox approach to the job also attracted criticism from the media and growing discontent in Labor ranks. Lewis simplified matters in early 2005 when two of his office volunteers circulated claims that a Labor MP, a former Liberal MP and two senior police were involved in a paedophile ring. These were contained in statutory declarations from eight alleged victims of the ring, two of whom were later to die in suspicious circumstances. Despite talk of an incriminating video, no substantiating evidence was forthcoming and the claims were further weakened when one of the accusers was himself revealed to be a convicted paedophile. The episode cost Lewis the support of both major parties and he resigned as Speaker pending a no-confidence motion on April 4.

As well as the speakership, Lewis also appears to have lost the support of his electorate. The Advertiser published an opinion poll on April 8 from a big sample of 529 Hammond voters, which had support for Lewis on just 16 per cent compared with 39 per cent for the Liberal candidate, Coomandook farmer Adrian Pederick (left), and 20 per cent for Labor (who have since nominated electorate officer James Peikert (right)). This was a sharp turnaround on a poll conducted a year earlier, which had Lewis on 27 per cent against 35 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for Labor for a lead of 53-47 on two-candidate preferred. Lewis was in the news again a few weeks later when a series of allegations of bullying emerged from former staff members. One told Channel Nine she had quit after an alleged incident in which Lewis forcibly ejected a parliamentary staffer from his office; another, a personal assistant who had worked for him for 20 years, also went on sick leave after suffering "verbal abuse and victimisation", claiming Lewis's "arrogance" had become "greater and greater" after he became Speaker.

Peter Lewis will not even attempt to hold the seat and will instead run for the upper house under the cumbersome handle of Principles People Reform Before Parties. A poll published in The Advertiser on February 22 showed Lewis in distant third place on 13 per cent of the decided vote compared with 48 per cent for Liberal candidate Adrian Pederick and 25 per cent for Labor (who had yet to unveil James Peikert as their candidate). A day earlier, Pederick's campaign was rocked by revelations that his mother took out a restraining order against him 15 years ago. The Australian reported that the order, which it received from an anonymous source (Lewis denies it was him), included a claim from police that Pederick "caused personal injury to (his mother) and is, unless restrained, likely again to cause personal injury". It also said the existence of the order was "widely known within the farming district of Coomandook". Nothing came of suggestions that the party’s Right faction would dump Pederick in favour of Chris Kenny, a former journalist and press secretary to Alexander Downer who unsuccessfully contested preselection for Unley last year. Interestingly, there wasn't a word about this in The Australian’s South Australian stablemate, The Advertiser.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN

This was the first straightforward Labor versus Liberal contest here for many a long year, so it's difficult to put Adrian Pederick's performance in perspective. He fell 1.0 per cent short of winning without going to preferences, while Labor's primary vote increase of 8.7 per cent wasn't out of the ordinary. A reflection of the Liberals' troubles here might be detected in the strong vote for Family First and the Greens (9.3 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively, after each failed to field a candidate in 2002), and even relatively good performances from One Nation (up from 3.4 per cent to a donkey vote-boosted 4.1 per cent) and the Democrats (down less than usual from 5.6 per cent to 3.6 per cent).

OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (12.0%)