THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

GOYDER
Liberal 16.1%

Goyder consists of Yorke Peninsula plus part of the Gulf St Vincent coastal area on the opposite (eastern) side. Lacking a major population centre, the dominance of farms and small towns have made it a safe conservative seat since it was created when rural vote weighting was abolished in 1970, although it was held by Liberal Movement and independent trouble-makers from 1974 to 1982. It has not been affected by the recent redistribution. The Liberal member of the last 24 years, John Meier, is retiring at the coming election. Yorke Peninsula Council chief executive Steven Griffiths (left) won Liberal preselection over a high-profile rival, South Australian Farmers Federation president John Lush. Meier's departure has had the Nationals publicly expressing hope that they might have a chance, although they polled only 8.5 per cent when they last contested in 1997. Labor candidate Aemon Bourke (right) is a organiser for the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain

Considering the loss of a personal vote built up by John Meier over nearly a quarter of a century, Liberal newcomer Steven Griffiths can be well satisfied that the Liberal Party primary vote was only down 1.2 per cent. It can be presumed that he recovered much of the 8.8 per cent that went to independent Stephen Redding in 2002, while also shedding votes to Labor (up 9.3 per cent to 32.6 per cent) and Family First (up 3.0 per cent to 7.6 per cent). Labor's boost came despite the entry of the Greens after a no-contest in 2002 (scoring 4.5 per cent), and they picked up a 7.0 per cent two-party swing.

OUTCOME: Liberal retain (9.1%)