THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

FLINDERS
Liberal 26.8%

Flinders extends from the southern half of the Eyre Peninsula all the way west to the Western Australian border, the dominant population centres being Port Lincoln and Ceduna. The redistribution has had a substantial effect on the physical shape of the electorate which now takes in the entire coastline of the Great Australian Bight, where it formerly ended at Ceduna. While this looks good on the map, all it adds is two roadhouses and a lot of Eyre Highway roadkill. More significant is the other half of a territory swap with Giles, to which it loses a stretch of the Spencer Gulf plus 1804 voters south-west of Port Augusta. The net loss of voters has left Flinders with the lowest enrolment of any electorate in the state.

This area is "injun country" for the Labor Party, having been held by variously branded conservatives since its creation in the distant (pre-World War II) past. Liz Penfold (right), a former teacher and public servant, won the seat for the Liberals in 1993 at the expense of incumbent Peter Blacker, who for 20 years had been the state's only Country/National Party MP. Penfold was boosted by the Liberals' strong overall performance at that election, but ultimately owed her win to a redistribution that temporarily added distant Kangaroo Island at the expense of Finniss, much to the displeasure of voters at both ends. Blacker attempted to win the seat back after this was reversed at the 1997 election but was soundly beaten, scoring 9.4 per cent to Penfold's 64.7 per cent. The Nationals ran again in 2002, but the result was little changed.

Penfold has remained on the back bench throughout her career and is not widely known outside her electorate. Most of her publicity in the current term surrounded claims she raised in parliament about Wudinna Hospital, which inspired her to ask if Health Minister Lea Stevens was "conspiring to protect possible corruption, intimidation and unprofessional conduct" through a whitewash inquiry process. Penfold later conceded in parliament that "conspiring" might have been a bit rough in light of possible connotations of criminality and should have been worded differently.

The National Party is taking the field once more time, hoping to bask in the glow of Barnaby Joyce and Karlene Maywald. The former's visit to Port Lincoln in early February stirred tensions between the Liberal and National parties, who agree not to challenge each other's sitting members when a coalition agreement is in place. Joyce received a less than welcoming reception from the local mayor, Peter Davis, who said he would be "first in line to piss on his grave" due to his role in the sale of Telstra. Their candidate is Hank Swalue, a Port Lincoln police officer. Labor's candidate is John Lovegrove (left).

Water issues are of great importance in the electorate, as you will appreciate if you view a satellite photo or cross the Nullarbor. The Government's decision to spend $48 million pumping Murray River water to the Eyre Peninsula via irrigators was angrily criticised by Penfold, who accused the government of failing to deliver on a promised desalination plant for the Tod Reservoir. Eyre Peninsula residents are also angry that they have to pay the River Murray levy, which was imposed to protect a resource they do not use.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain

One under-reported aspect of the election outcome has been an encouraging performance by the Nationals, who polled very strongly in three of the four electorates they contested (the exception, MacKillop, might not have been a suitable seat for them). Flinders candidate Hank Swalue lifted the party's vote to 24.3 per cent from 9.2 per cent in 2002. Booth results suggest that Swalue's personal popularity played a significant role, as he polled well over 30 per cent in Port Lincoln where he works as a police officer. He finished well clear of Labor who were down 3.6 per cent to 12.2 per cent, the biggest fall out of the three seats where their primary vote went backwards (the others being Mitchell, where a successful independent incumbent was a factor, and Chaffey, which remains the only seat held by the Nationals). Liz Penfold's vote fell 12.1 per cent, but she still managed to avoid going to preferences with 53.2 per cent of the vote. Nevertheless, she can no longer claim to hold the Liberals' safest seat, an honour that now belongs to Mitch Williams of the aforementioned MacKillop.

OUTCOME: Liberal retain (10.1% vs Nationals)