THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

FINNISS
Liberal 15.9%

Known as Alexandrina until 1993, Finniss has for most of its history consisted of Kangaroo Island, Fleurieu Peninsula and as much of the mainland beyond as was necessary to make up the numbers (Kangaroo Island was briefly moved to distant Flinders in 1993 after new laws put a higher premium on electoral fairness than community of interest, but this was reversed at the subsequent election following objections from locals on either side). The latter area has been dwindling with successive redistributions as incoming retirees swell the area's population, displacing its identity as a farming area without changing its party allegiance. The current redistribution has sent 1876 voters to Heysen and another 372 to Hammond.

Alexandrina was long held by moderate factional stalwart Ted Chapman, recently deceased father of current leadership aspirant Vickie Chapman, who agreed to surrender it in 1992 to facilitate Dean Brown's return to parliament. Brown had been a leading figure among the moderates since entering parliament in 1973, and was at one stage a member of Steele Hall's Liberal Movement, a faction of which formed the nucleus of the Australian Democrats. In 1985 he lost his seat of Davenport to Stan Evans, a Liberal MP and factional enemy who stood as an independent after failing to win a preselection showdown that followed a tough redistribution. Brown's return in Alexandrina was part of a plan by moderates to install him in the leadership in the stead of John Olsen, who was then planning a negotiated takeover from Dale Baker (who had replaced Olsen as leader when he moved to the Senate after his second election defeat). Olsen also faced the hurdle of not being in state parliament, which he was negotiating through the voluntary retirement of Roger Goldsworthy in Kavel. Brown and Olsen both won by-elections held on 9 May 1992 and a leadership showdown followed immediately, at which Brown extracted revenge for his defeat in the previous bout after the Tonkin government's election defeat in 1982.

Lynn Arnold's Labor government was put out of its misery in December 1993 and Brown became Premier, but his cautious style led to unfavourable comparisons with Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett, then believed to be an invincible political genius. Brown was deposed in November 1996 by his old nemesis John Olsen, but continued to serve in his government in industrial affairs and later in human services. He again put his hand up for the leadership when the Motorola affair compelled Olsen to resign in October 2001, but the party's desire for a clean break saw Rob Kerin defeat him by 13 votes to nine. His successful entry into the subsequent deputy leadership vote was reportedly prompted by a desire to thwart Iain Evans, the son of the man who defeated him in Davenport way back in 1985. Brown retained the deputy leadership after the Kerin government's defeat and was thought by many to be keeping the Liberal ship afloat by assuming responsibilities that were normally the domain of the Premier. As Shadow Health Minister he led the assault against Lea Stevens, who eventually resigned in November 2005. Shortly afterwards Brown relinquished the deputy leadership and announced he would not stand at the election.

Brown's departure led to a hotly contested preselection won by Kangaroo Island mayor Michael Pengilly (above right), who at 55 was double the age of his rivals, Victor Harbor mayor Scott Schubert and Vickie Chapman staffer John Gardner. Pengilly won 39 votes against 17 for Schubert and five for Gardner. Also named as a potential candidate was Alexandrina mayor Kym McHugh (left), although his Liberal copybook was blotted by a background with the Nationals – whose only current state MP had proved willing to become part of Mike Rann's cabinet. McHugh ultimately decided not to contest the preselection but kept open the option of running as an independent or Nationals candidate (he said he would be particularly keen if his friend Schubert was not preselected), which had some talking of him as a potential Alex McTaggart. Chaffey MP Karlene Maywald eventually persuaded him to stand as a Nationals candidate in January. Both Pengilly and Brown have said the Liberals would not be troubled by an independent candidate, as they would have little chance of getting ahead of Labor no matter how dead they played.

Labor candidate Mary-Lou Corcoran (right) is one of eight children of Des Corcoran, who spent seven months as Premier in 1979 between the retirement of Don Dunstan and that year's unexpected election defeat.

In the second last week of the campaign, Rob Kerin announced a keynote $130 million promise to build a four-lane highway between Adelaide and Victor Harbor. The Poll Bludger just barely survived a journey along the existing route while in South Australia early in the campaign, and can see why it is renowned as one of the most dangerous roads in the state. The announcement earned a front-page headline ("Kerin to fix killer road") in The Advertiser, a paper many have faulted for coverage that seems tailored to curtail the extent of Labor's seemingly inevitable victory. The following day, Treasurer Kevin Foley accused the Liberals of being $200 million out on the costings, but Greg Kelton of The Advertiser reports that the Liberal estimate was supported by both the RAA and the Committee for Adelaide Roads.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain

Early figures on election night suggested that Nationals candidate Kym McHugh was on track to outpoll Labor and subsequently take it right up to Liberal candidate Michael Pengilly on preferences. However, it is now clear that this was part of the time-honoured pattern of small rural booths dominating the early results. In the three Victor Harbor booths, Labor more than doubled the roughly 15 per cent recorded by McHugh, who finished with 17.5 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor's Mary-Lou Corocoran. With the departure of Dean Brown and the challenge of Kym McHugh, the Liberal primary vote was inevitably well down (from 55.8 per cent to 37.1 per cent), but still high enough to produce a comfortable win after distribution of Nationals preferences.

OUTCOME: Liberal retain (6.5%)