THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

COLTON
Labor 4.1%

A coastal suburban electorate extending north of the river from Henley Beach inland to Kidman Park, Colton replaced the abolished Henley Beach at the 1993 election. Henley Beach was held by Labor during the Bannon/Arnold government, and previously for one term by Liberal member Bob Randall, who in 2003 became state party president via a job in Senator Nick Minchin's office. In between Randall stood for election several times outside the party's umbrella, including attempts to win Colton as an independent in 1993 and 1997. He polled 20.1 per cent in 1993 and very nearly succeeded in reducing Labor to a humiliating third place, in which case he would most likely have won the seat with their preferences. It was instead won for the Liberals by Steve Condous, who had previously been the Lord Mayor.

Condous survived in more comfortable style at the 1997 election, which he owed to a Labor resurgence that put second place well beyond Randall's reach (Randall also headed the Christian Democratic Party's South Australian Senate ticket at the 1998 federal election). A substantial redistribution before the 2002 election cut the Liberal margin from 4.1 per cent to 0.9 per cent, at which point Condous retired. In a result that proved pivotal to the overall election outcome, the seat fell to Labor with a swing of 5.8 per cent. The incoming member was Paul Caica (left), former firefighter and national secretary of the Left faction United Firefighters Union. His Liberal opponent at the coming election is Tim Blackamore (right), who operates a Mortgage Choice franchise.

The latest redistribution has created an uncomfortable salient in the north-east where there once was a smooth line thanks to a territory swap with Lee, a consequence of what Antony Green describes as "the state's exotic rules that electoral boundaries be 'fair'". Relatively strong Liberal territory in Grange has also been added, contributing to a 0.5 per cent cut in Labor's margin. The other area of Liberal strength is at the opposite end in the suburb of Lockleys, which also serves as a Liberal outpost in the neighbouring Labor seat of West Torrens.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain

Another outstanding result for Labor in an Adelaide seat that was held by the Liberals in the very recent past. Paul Caica's 16.5 per cent lift on the primary vote was Labor's third highest in the state, and the 12.2 per cent two-party swing was also up there with the best. Labor majorities were recorded in all booths including the previously intractable Lockleys, the only booth where Labor's primary vote failed to crack 50 per cent.

OUTCOME: Labor retain (16.3%)