THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

CHAFFEY
Nationals 14.9% vs Liberal

Chaffey covers the area immediately west of the border with New South Wales and Victoria, including the Riverland towns of Waikerie, Loxton, Berri and Renmark. The seat has a long history – created in 1938, it was in conservative hands until Arthur Curran won it for Labor in 1962, depriving Sir Tom Playford (then into his twenty-fourth year as Premier) of the constitutional majority he needed to rig the electoral boundaries one last time. Curran held the seat when Labor finally struggled to power at the 1965 election, but his loss to Liberal candidate Peter Arnold at the 1968 election proved enough to send Don Dunstan's first government back into opposition, despite Labor recording 52.0 per cent of the statewide primary vote. The new Liberal Premier, Steele Hall (husband of current Morialta MP Joan Hall), brought in highly principled electoral reform that put his government out of business at the 1970 election, at which Arthur Curran recovered his old seat under new boundaries. The seat was lost to Labor for good when Arnold won it back in 1973, to eventually be succeeded by Kent Andrew in 1993.

Andrew lost his seat at the subsequent 1997 election to Nationals candidate Karlene Maywald (right), a maltster and brewer who came to prominence through her successful campaign against the Keating government's beer tax regime. Maywald campaigned against the state government's reluctance to proceed with a private sector greyhound racetrack in Waikerie, which promised to be the first in a series of country tracks making a packet out of the international internet gambling market. Liberal MP and former Gaming Minister Graham Ingerson thought the plan, which was backed by NSW firm Teletrak, to be a "scam" run by "crooks". Maywald went on to poll 37.1 per cent at the 1997 election against Andrew's 41.7 per cent, ultimately prevailing by 2.6 per cent after distribution of Labor preferences. The Liberals' loss of a majority, along with the lack of a coalition agreement in South Australia, meant Maywald was essentially one of three conservative independents holding the balance of power. She used her influence to ensure passage of Teletrak legislation, support the sale of TAB and the Ports Corporation, oppose the sale of ETSA, and support establishment of the Motorola inquiry that would eventually bring down Premier John Olsen. Generally speaking, Maywald was seen as less inclined to support Labor than the ex-Liberal independents, Bob Such and Peter Lewis.

Kent Andrew attempted to win the seat back from Maywald at the 2002 election, but Maywald predictably widened the gap with a 13.1 per cent increase on the primary vote and a 12.8 per cent two-party (Nationals versus Liberal) swing. She was reportedly emboldened to consider trying her hand at the federal seat of Barker, where Liberal member Patrick Secker had made himself unpopular through his position on River Murray water flows. This prospect did not please the Rann government, which had formed a good relationship with Maywald and did not relish the prospect of her seat returning to the Liberal Party at a by-election. The Premier constructed a creative solution by offering her a cabinet post in July 2004, with responsibilities including a new River Murray portfolio along with regional development, small business and consumer affairs. Her acceptance put an end to the minority status the government had suffered since Mitchell MP Kris Hanna defected from Labor to the Greens.

This time the Liberals have endorsed Monash real estate agent and grape grower Anna Baric (left), whom they have been promoting heavily; by contrast, Labor's nomination of Robert Potter (right), a 20-year-old Flinders University student, has prompted claims from the Liberals that they are running dead to assist Maywald. The Liberals have high hopes of defeating Maywald by portraying her acceptance of a cabinet post as a sellout to the Labor Party. They have gone in particularly hard over her failure to back their call for a public inquiry into the Atkinson-Ashbourne affair, contrasting it with her tough line against the Olsen government over the Motorola affair. In her defence, Maywald can point to a record of continuing independence of the government which included voting down a government industrial relations bill in November 2004. She has nonetheless secured a deal with Rann to continue as a minister if the government is returned, much to the annoyance of aspirational Labor MPs.

A poll published by The Advertiser in November 2005 had Maywald well in the clear with 38 per cent of the decided vote, against 33 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for Labor. Given that Maywald will certainly outpoll Labor and thus inherit their preferences, the Liberals will need to finish well ahead on the primary vote to be competitive. Antony Green boldly predicts another increased majority for Maywald.

The Teletrak proposal that played such an important role in Maywald's election in 1997 has become a liability for her since the company went into liquidation in late 2001. Its licence for the racetrack was sold to a company called Cyber Raceways, which has failed to find financial backing to complete it.

ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain

Antony Green's bold prediction came good as Karlene Maywald's primary vote lifted 4.0 per cent to 53.2 per cent, making this her first win without needing preferences. She also picked up a 2.3 per cent swing against the Liberals on two-party preferred. Interestingly, the two Loxton booths went against the trend to record a swing to the Liberals of more than 10 per cent. This was one of only three electorates where Labor was down on the primary vote, from 12.0 per cent to 9.8 per cent.

OUTCOME: Nationals retain (17.2% versus Liberal)