THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

BRIGHT
Liberal 4.6%

Bright covers the coast south of Glenelg, from Brighton to O'Sullivan Beach inclusive. Two unpopulated areas break the electorate into three distinct areas - Brighton, Seacliff and Marino in the north, where the Liberals score in the high 50s on two-party preferred; O'Sullivans Beach and Christie Downs deep in the south, where Labor scores in the mid 60s; and Hallett Cove in the middle, where the Liberals managed about 55 per cent in 2002. The Labor area, which is just north of the Port Stanvac oil refinery that Mobil mothballed in December 2002, accounts for only about 15 per cent of voters, and its inclusion is one of many anomalies caused by electoral legislation compelling the Boundaries Commission to aim for "fair" outcomes with respect to party representation. The only change from the redistribution involves an unpopulated area where a suburban boundary had been altered.

Bright was won for the Liberals in 1989 by Wayne Matthew, who put the seat beyond doubt with a 16.6 per cent swing in the 1993 landslide. Matthew was a prominent supporter of Dean Brown in his long-running feud with John Olsen, and had an accordingly variable ministerial career with positions ranging from Mines and Energy Minister to "Minister for Year 2000 Compliance". He is now retiring, and upper house member Angus Redford (right) is using the vacancy as an opportunity to move downstairs. This is reckoned a remarkable fact by local observers, as the switch has not been successfully accomplished in South Australia for 20 years. Together with that of Unley, the preselection was reckoned by one observer to be "the greatest bloody mess of all time". This presumably refers to the nomination and subsequent withdrawal of Wayne Matthew staffer Kay Gaskin, amid slightly mysterious circumstances. Redford went on to defeat party vice-president Dean Hersey in the preselection vote, which was held in April 2005.

Redford kept a fairly low profile during the period of the Brown/Olsen/Kerin government, but he enjoyed a substantial promotion not long after his preselection win when he took over energy and emergency services from Matthew. He is said to be close to the rising star of the Right, Davenport MP Iain Evans. Opposing him is Labor's Chloe Fox (left), a veteran of the 2004 federal election campaign as candidate for the fairly safe Liberal seat of Boothby. Fox added an impressive 9.9 per cent to the Labor primary vote, and while this mostly came at the expense of the Australian Democrats, it still translated into a 2.0 per cent two-party swing against the national and statewide trend. Fox is a former Advertiser journalist and current school teacher, and the daughter of popular children's author Mem Fox. Christian Kerr of Crikey reports that she is "supported by the unmatched (Michael) Atkinson campaign machine".

A poll published in The Advertiser on January 19 suggested Redford might have done better to have remained in the red morgue – he trailed 48 per cent to 36 per cent on the decided primary vote, and an alarming 59-41 on two-party preferred. Redford has ruled out the possibility of returning to his vacant upper house seat, which some want filled before the election so it is not fought over by defeated lower house members.

Angus Redford created a stir early in the campaign with some hyperbolic rhetoric about law and order. A campaign pamphlet (which can be viewed at the website of independent Mitchell candidate Travis Gilbert) displayed a photo of a burnt-out car above the caption: "West Bank, Beirut or Baghdad? No – It’s Adelaide 2006! How can we feel safe with Mr Rann in charge?". The article quoted Iraqi Kurdish community spokesman Sherko Kirmanj declaring the analogy "offensive for both communities", while the Mail’s leading article decried Redford’s "scare tactics". It may also have been a bit rough on Beirut, which I understand to be fairly placid these days.

ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN

The curse that afflicts South Australian MLCs attempting to switch to the lower house has struck again with a vengeance. In the face of some stiff competition, Bright produced the Liberals' worst performance in the state with a two-party swing of 14.0 per cent. Labor was up no less than 16.9 per cent on the primary vote and scored two-party majorities in every booth. The two large Hallett Cove booths were particularly hard on Redford, both swinging by more than 17 per cent.

OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (9.4%)