THE POLL BLUDGER
South Australian House of Assembly Election 2006

BRAGG
Liberal 19.7%

Bragg covers affluent suburbs immediately to the south-east of the CBD, from Rose Park out to Skye and Waterfall Gully. The seat has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 1970, the inaugural member being David Tonkin who served as Premier from 1979 to 1982. Tonkin quit the year after the defeat of his government and was succeeded by Graham Ingerson, who briefly held the deputy leadership in 1992 and was made Tourism Minister when Dean Brown's government was elected the following year. Ingerson went on to play a key role in the 1996 leadership coup when he switched his support from Brown to John Olsen in a deal that made him deputy leader and Minister for Infrastructure, Police, Emergency Services and Racing. He was compelled to stand down from these positions in August 1998 amid the first of a series of controversies that dogged him through the government's second term, and he retired at the 2002 election.

There followed a hotly contested preselection in which state party president Vickie Chapman (right), the daughter of recently deceased Tonkin government minister and member for Alexandrina (now Finniss) Ted Chapman, prevailed over Michael Armitage, whose was attempting to switch from Adelaide to a safer seat with the backing of the Right faction (although John Olsen was reportedly opposed, presumably because he felt Armitage should fight it out in Adelaide). Senator Grant Chapman of the Right publicly accused the moderates, in particular federal Sturt MP Christopher Pyne, of stacking branches to influence both the preselection and elections for party administrative positions. Christian Kerr of Crikey, who was himself once a moderate-aligned president of the local party branch, reported that Armitage was defeated by "some 50 votes to over 100".

Chapman's success perpetuated the long-running family feuds that characterise the state Liberal Party, and she subsequently emerged as the moderates' favoured leadership candidate in opposition to the Right's Iain Evans, the son of former factional stalwart Stan Evans. Her rising star status was confirmed when she assumed the shadow education portfolio three months after the election, but more than one observer has since been heard expressing disappointment with her performance in parliament. Kevin Naughton of The Advertiser reported on 9 October 2005 that she had "lost some key supporters", and she managed a disappointing five votes to Iain Evans' 15 in the deputy leadership vote that followed Dean Brown's resignation in November 2005. Naughton had earlier reported that the idea of a joint ticket in which Evans would replace Rob Kerin with Chapman as her deputy had been accepted by some of Chapman's supporters, but none of Evans'.

Labor candidate Andrew Plimer (left) is a physical education lecturer who plays rugby union for South Australia.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain

The 6.9 per cent two-party swing was one of the milder outcomes in Adelaide, a fact Liberals might find rather irritating given the amount of damage they could have safely absorbed here. The Greens polled a very strong 9.3 per cent after declining to field a candidate in 2002, their vote being conspicuously higher at the north-western end of the electorate that adjoins Norwood.

OUTCOME: Liberal retain (12.8%)